How far will the SP500 eventually fall?

3月31日

There are different numbers here. Most people are heading towards a reasonable range, but there are also extreme statements, and so let's look at what the reality is. In addition to the technical side, which indicates how far it can possibly fall, do not forget that there is also a very strong fundamental and I would even say psychological side here, and all this can be different in just 2 hours if our "favorite" person changes his plans for tariffs, which is also very possible. Therefore, any technical picture now depends on his decisions. So. Turning to the weekly chart, it is clearly seen that the dynamic support line from the accumulated volume lies at $3300-3365. The signals for reversal are clear (the green triangles below). A return there would be a relative return by June 2024. The daily is at $5378-5402, but there it is clear that the decline is logical to continue a little longer. In fact, during the crisis on August 5, both almost coincided and held up. On the 4-hour chart, things are similar. The indicators are screaming "buy". Based on all this, I think the price will fall NO more than $5365-5400. These are very good entry points, but I do not advise anyone to trade until April 2, although I think things will become clear later today or tomorrow. Everything can change and we will not reach these levels just from two lines written by Trump.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GLIIjocS/?symbol=CAPITALCOM%3AUS500

4月4日

交易結束：目標達成

We are very close to the bottom. I don't expect to go lower than 5300$ . We are touching now both the daily and weekly volume supports supports and all posible indicators "scream" buy! This is the perfect entry point. The fundamental is also strong. Tariffs drama will end soon and the earning season will start next week. Also, its a April. The job claims probably will be the key for the strong up movement today. Good luck!