SPX500: Breakout or Rejection? Multi-Timeframe + Macro Analysis

📢 S&P 500 (US500) at a Key Decision Point
The index has been consolidating around 6000–6100 and is now testing critical breakout resistance near 6100–6110.

🔹 Weekly Outlook

The rising channel structure remains intact, with higher highs & higher lows.
Major supports: 5000, 5200, 5400 (weekly OBs).
Momentum still bullish: SMA alignment (10 < 50 < 100 < 200) shows strength.
🔹 Daily Technicals

SPX broke out of its previous smaller channel and is now in a consolidation phase.
6000 is now a strong pivot zone, while 6110 is the key breakout level to watch.
RSI is above 57 (bullish but not overextended).
🔹 Macro Insights

GDP growth at 2.3% – Strong consumer spending but slowing industrial growth.
Fed rates at 4.25-4.50% – Real rates are positive, supporting large caps.
Hedge funds are net short SPX futures (~-75k contracts) – Short-covering potential.
Forward P/E at 21-22x – Valuation is elevated, meaning earnings need to continue outperforming.
💡 Trade Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout: Long if price closes above 6110, targeting 6200–6350.
✅ Pullback Buy: Long at 5930-5886 (bullish OB) with stops at 5850.
✅ Bearish Breakdown: Short if price loses 5900, targeting 5750-5600.

📊 What do you think? Will SPX break out or reject at 6100? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🚀

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