US500 - swing trading plan and technical analysis

2021年12月3日

The major US index is ''suffering'' a healthy correction from around 4750 ATH set in November roughly 2 weeks ago!

The volatility is quite high, thus the risk has increased in addition to potential return. You know how it works...

...higher risk - higher return.

At the moment my total stock market exposure is around 50k and from current level I am planning to hold at least until 4900, which means around 7.2% profit potential at the time of writing.

Also I am ready to double my total speculative exposure based on the scenarios you can see on the chart.

Fundamentally we have the potential to grow.

Omicron might end the covid pandemic, due to its' not so severe effect. Tapering means that the US economy is healthy and can sustain itself without drug money.

The US yields should not grow extremely. Oil market is in balance right now and backwardation is almost gone.

Reopening economy stocks potentially can be well-bid. Major tech stocks are also having bright future earnings outlook.

Risk and money management is very important.

Patience as well.

2021年12月20日

交易進行

Investors are not in a good mood today.

Concerns around new covid variant are spreading around US stock market, which is trading near a two-week low or the same level when this idea was published.

What's else is hurting the US stocks or S&P500?
''President Biden's $2 trillion tax-and-spending package was rejected raising the prospect of additional US growth downgrades. With flight to safety being the overriding concern, lower bond yields are questioning the FOMC's ability to act as hawkish as they signaled last week''. At the moment by the end of 2022 the market is pricing at least 3 rate increases. Short-term we can expect thinner trading volumes ahead of holiday period, meaning more volatility or swings are quite possible.

''Equities have not experienced their year-end rally and investors seems to be lowering their short-term growth expectations due to Omicron and lower profit margins due to inflation is a theme that will continue to be visible in the Q4 earnings season starting in mid-January.''

I know many traders, including major US investment banks are voting for a 5000 price target from current levels, meaning roughly 10% profit potential.

As a swing trader I am riding it only on the buy side... Constantly increasing and decreasing the position. At the moment my total exposure is more than 50k + around 45k in copier AUM. Still ready to more than double (2,2x) my position size (available liquidity per balance target at the moment is 1,21).

Feel free to follow me, ask any questions in comments or directly through my website.