USD/CAD remains on the backfoot after tariffs delay

The USD/CAD has extended its drop after reversing sharply the day before on the back of Trump's U-turn on imposing tariffs on Canada, delaying it for at least a month. Today's weaker US JOLTS job openings data has further pressured the US dollar.

The FX pair had initially surged on Monday, breaking above both the March 2020 high of 1.4668 and January’s peak of 1.4690, reaching a session high of 1.4793 before swiftly reversing as news emerged of tariff delays. The resulting price action formed a long-legged inverted hammer candle—typically seen at major swing highs.

For the bears, a decisive move lower would now be needed to confirm that at least a near-term top has been established.

Crucially, the USD/CAD has breached the key 1.4400 pivotal zone, where prior support converges with the 21-day exponential moving average and a rising trendline. A daily close well below this level could open the door to fresh technical selling, potentially driving the pair below the recent low of 1.4261 in the days ahead, if not even lower.

On the upside, immediate resistance now comes in around the 1.4370-1.4400 area, with a more significant zone sitting around 1.4500, which was tested earlier in the session and has held—for now. Beyond that, the next key resistance area lies between the 2020 and 2016 highs, within the 1.4668-1.4690 range, making it a critical zone to watch.

By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com