USDCAD Rebound from Key Support – Bullish Setup in Play

7 天前

USDCAD pair has reached a technical inflection point at key support around 1.3700, where it is attempting a rebound after several days of bearish momentum. With recent Canadian data showing underlying economic strain and the U.S. dollar reacting to rate expectations and tariff news, this area becomes crucial for the next directional move.

🔍 Technical Analysis
Support Level: Price has respected the horizontal support at 1.3700–1.3685, forming a possible double-bottom structure on the 4H chart.

Bullish Reversal Zone: The latest candle shows a strong rejection wick at the support zone, suggesting bullish interest. The structure aligns with a classic bullish reversal pattern.

Target Zones:

First TP: 1.3849 (previous high / supply zone).

Second TP: 1.3860–1.3870 (Fibonacci extension + minor resistance).

Invalidation (SL): Below 1.3685, further downside may open to 1.3632.

🧠 Fundamental Context
U.S. Side:

GDP and NFP data have recently come out mixed, reducing the immediate pressure on the Fed to hike rates further.

Tariff uncertainty and appeal plans by the Trump administration are increasing near-term USD volatility.

US bond yields are firming again, giving the dollar mild support.

Canada Side:

Canadian Q1 GDP disappointed at 0.1%, lower than expected.

BoC is likely to hold rates steady, but the economy shows weak business investment and softening consumption growth.

Crude oil, Canada’s key export, is still under pressure, slightly weakening CAD.

✅ Conclusion
This setup favors a short-term long on USDCAD from current levels, targeting the upper resistance zone at 1.3849–1.3860. A break and close above 1.3870 could extend toward 1.3900. However, caution should be exercised with upcoming U.S. labor and trade data that may fuel volatility.

5 天前

交易進行