USDCAD Short Setup – Support Broken, More Downside Ahead?

Bias: ✅ Strong Sell
Timeframe: 4H
Pair: USDCAD
Week: 26–30 May 2025

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🔍 Technical Setup:

USDCAD just broke a major support zone around 1.3732, opening the door for continued downside into the next demand zone.
• Entry: Break and retest or continuation below 1.3732
• Stop Loss: Above resistance at 1.3813
• Take Profit: Next support near 1.3467
• Risk-Reward Ratio: ~3.9R
• Structure: Lower highs, clean breakdown, bearish momentum

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🧠 Macro Confluence:
• 📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed, weak macro outlook (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓)
• 🇨🇦 CAD Recovery: Hawkish BoC, conditional score surged from 2 → 10
• 📊 Seasonals: CAD favored
• 🧾 COT: Net bearish shift in USD, CAD corrective phase expected
• ⚠️ News Risk: CAD GDP & US GDP this week could accelerate the move

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⚠️ Risk Notes:
• Watch for FOMC and GDP reports before scaling positions
• Break & close confirmed – trail stops on lower timeframe

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📌 Momentum is in favor – ride the breakdown, but stay data-aware.
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