USDCAD - CAD Vs tariffs!

12月4日

The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. You can sell up to the bottom of the ascending channel within the specified supply zone with the appropriate risk reward.

The Canadian dollar has underperformed against other currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of Canada’s consistent interest rate cuts. It is expected that the central bank will lower interest rates for the fifth time in December, though the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut has diminished following a higher-than-expected inflation report.
The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still foresee the possibility of a larger rate cut. Meanwhile, per capita GDP data reveals that economic growth has declined for the sixth consecutive period. Monthly GDP figures indicate that growth in September and October was only 0.1%.

According to CIBC, domestic demand remained relatively stable during this time, comparable to the previous quarter. However, monthly data shows that the third quarter ended with gradual deceleration rather than the sharp rebound initially expected, leading to significantly lower fourth-quarter forecasts compared to the projections in October’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
RBC maintains its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut but has stated that Friday’s employment report will be closely monitored ahead of the central bank’s December 11 meeting.
“GDP numbers reinforce the notion that current interest rates are higher than necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The Bank of Canada will also closely monitor next week’s labor market data, but a further 50-basis-point cut in December is likely,” an analyst remarked.
Currently, the Bank of Canada projects 2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised downward. With government forecasts suggesting population declines, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach for 2025.
Deputy Governor Mendes of the Bank of Canada stated that inflation is gradually easing and will eventually stabilize at 2%. Lower inflation will boost consumer and business confidence, encouraging spending and investment. If the economy evolves as anticipated, further rate cuts could be possible. However, he emphasized that decisions will be made step-by-step, considering both above-target and below-target inflation. Mendes warned that additional measures to curb inflation might hurt economic growth, with potentially more negative long-term consequences than short-term benefits.

According to Axios, a senior Canadian Liberal minister involved in Sunday’s negotiations stated that Canadian officials plan to “visibly and robustly” enhance border security following a meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries due to his concerns over migrants and drugs entering the U.S.
Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, told CBC Radio and Television that Canadian officials met with Trump and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs and their implications for the economy. LeBlanc stressed that existing border security cooperation remains strong but noted concerns over firearm smuggling from the U.S.
LeBlanc also shared that during an informal dinner with Trudeau, Trump jokingly suggested that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. He clarified that the comment was made in jest and was not meant seriously.