USDCAD (4H) - Bearish Break of Consolidation Zone

USDCAD

📶Technical Analysis:

Weekly Chart:
🟠 Price is in a long-term bullish trend, confirmed by a trendline formed since 2021 and 3 MAs aligned bullish.
🟡 Price tested major resistance at 1.4600-1.4700, which was previously tested in 2016 and 2020.
🟢 Strong pullback after testing resistance, indicating a potential bearish reversal pattern.

Daily Chart:
🟢 Strong bearish candle on the daily chart confirms that the weekly resistance holds.
🟡 Price volatility influenced by Trump's tariff decision.
🟢 The bearish momentum on the daily chart confirms the trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
🔴 The next strong support is around 1.3900, where the price has failed to break five times.

4H Chart:
🟡 Price has been consolidating since Dec 2024 between 1.4450 (resistance) and 1.4300 (support).
🟡 Price initially broke above the range due to tariff news but quickly returned to the consolidation zone.
🟢 Strong bearish candle broke through the lower support at 1.43, signaling potential bearish continuation.
🟢 The break of support suggests a bearish outlook, with the next targets near 1.3900.
🟢 The Moving Averages (MAs) are crossing, indicating a potential shift to a bearish trend.

🔤 Summary:

🟡 Waiting for a retest of the broken 1.43 support level to confirm the bearish trend continuation.
🟡 Expecting a correction in the bearish trend with the formation of additional signal candles that confirm the bearish momentum after the retracement.
🟡 Watch for the formation of bearish candles after the correction, either near the broken support level or EMA levels for confirmation before entering the bearish trade.