USD/CAD Weekly Outlook (1H Timeframe): Distribution Phase.
Wyckoff Distribution Phases
Phase A, B, C:
Wyckoff distribution phases indicate a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, especially with the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) marking exhaustion.
UTAD and UT:
These indicate the last buying attempts before the market turns bearish, potentially signaling short entries.
LPSY (Last Point of Supply):
Final points before the major price drop, leading to distribution completion.
Harmonic Pattern Analysis
Harmonic Pattern Completion:
Point D aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, a potential reversal zone where bearish continuation could begin.
Fibonacci Confluence:
The harmonic pattern completes near the 0.618 retracement, signaling a reversal.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Wave Count (0-4):
A corrective structure completing the Wave C-Y count, indicating a potential bearish continuation.
Wave 5 Expectation:
The final move down after the distribution phase could complete the wave structure.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
BOS (Break of Structure):
An internal BOS signals a shift to the downside, with price retesting the LPSY zone for continuation.
POC (Point of Control):
A volume-heavy zone at 1.3538, likely to cause price reactions, confirming or rejecting bearish moves.
ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts)
Sell-Side & Buy-Side Liquidity:
The market grabbed sell-side liquidity after the distribution, and buy-side liquidity may be targeted near 1.3580 before reversing.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Line (1.3580):
A crucial reversal point aligning with the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern completion.
Support Line (1.3419):
Potential downside target once the reversal happens, indicating the next major area of interest.
Invalidation Level (1.3660):
A move above this invalidates the bearish outlook and signals continuation of the uptrend.
Week Plan
Bearish Bias:
Post-UTAD, expecting price to hit 1.3580 and then reverse downward toward 1.3540 and 1.3419.
Elliott Wave Completion:
The corrective structure is expected to finalize with a bearish impulse.
SMC Focus:
Watch for liquidity grabs to trigger the move down.
Phase A, B, C:
Wyckoff distribution phases indicate a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, especially with the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) marking exhaustion.
UTAD and UT:
These indicate the last buying attempts before the market turns bearish, potentially signaling short entries.
LPSY (Last Point of Supply):
Final points before the major price drop, leading to distribution completion.
Harmonic Pattern Analysis
Harmonic Pattern Completion:
Point D aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, a potential reversal zone where bearish continuation could begin.
Fibonacci Confluence:
The harmonic pattern completes near the 0.618 retracement, signaling a reversal.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Wave Count (0-4):
A corrective structure completing the Wave C-Y count, indicating a potential bearish continuation.
Wave 5 Expectation:
The final move down after the distribution phase could complete the wave structure.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
BOS (Break of Structure):
An internal BOS signals a shift to the downside, with price retesting the LPSY zone for continuation.
POC (Point of Control):
A volume-heavy zone at 1.3538, likely to cause price reactions, confirming or rejecting bearish moves.
ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts)
Sell-Side & Buy-Side Liquidity:
The market grabbed sell-side liquidity after the distribution, and buy-side liquidity may be targeted near 1.3580 before reversing.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Line (1.3580):
A crucial reversal point aligning with the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern completion.
Support Line (1.3419):
Potential downside target once the reversal happens, indicating the next major area of interest.
Invalidation Level (1.3660):
A move above this invalidates the bearish outlook and signals continuation of the uptrend.
Week Plan
Bearish Bias:
Post-UTAD, expecting price to hit 1.3580 and then reverse downward toward 1.3540 and 1.3419.
Elliott Wave Completion:
The corrective structure is expected to finalize with a bearish impulse.
SMC Focus:
Watch for liquidity grabs to trigger the move down.
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