11 RR Sell Setup for USDCAD

8月7日

Core Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts

Based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, we have identified a strong demand zone on the daily timeframe, which has once again given a strong rejection, changing the price character from bullish to bearish on the H1 timeframe.

😇 7 Dimension Analysis

Time Frame: H1

Swing Structure:

Bearish CHoCH from higher timeframe zone rejection.
Took inducement and now ready for a corrective swing move with its 1st pullback.
Internal structure turned bullish for a correction towards extreme and decisional POI (Order Flow or Order Block).
Preferred POI: Order Flow in the Premier zone of the swing.
Entry Model: Regular SMC.
Daily Resistance: Supply zone where sellers still have full control, with the 3rd breakout attempt failure.

Pattern:

🟢 Chart Patterns:
Reversal: Head and Shoulders pattern is clearly visible and completed.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
Observed multiple reversal candlestick patterns on the daily timeframe, including Doji, Long Wick, Engulfing, and Dark Clouds. These patterns indicate strong bearish momentum at the level.
Volume:

🟢 Very massive volume observed on the daily timeframe right before and after rejection, with the price reacting bearish. This is a strong indication for a sell position.
Momentum RSI:

🟢 Price is in the bullish zone yet, but strange things are noted in terms of momentum on the daily timeframe.
🟢 Strongest 3-candle divergence and loud moves.
According to Andrew Cardwell's method (used for momentum analysis with RSI), loud moves are almost 90% confirmed moves.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:

🟢 After one of the longest contraction phases, the breakout to the upper side was unable to give the expected move and was rejected after a squeeze breakout.
🟢 Walking on the band took a rejection with a head fake, indicating strong bearish control here.
Strength ADX: Neutral

Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Entry Time Frame: H1
Entry TF Structure: Bearish CHoCH
POI: Waiting for mitigation
Decision: Sell limit order with extreme risk (as per my money management strategy).

🚀 Entry: 1.3855
✋ Stop loss: 1.3955
🎯 Take profit: 1.2818
😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 11 RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 45 Days

SUMMARY:
Based on the comprehensive analysis using Smart Money Concepts, a sell limit order at 1.3855 with a stop loss at 1.3955 and a take profit at 1.2818 is recommended. The setup shows strong bearish indications across various parameters, making it a high-probability trade. The expected duration for this trade is 45 days with a risk to reward ratio of 11 RR.

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