Trade set up - We are cautiously optimistic when it comes to USDCAD and looking to trade the pair as a proxy of US crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS). We enter the trade long at the current price of 1.3295, with small position sizing and tight stops set at 1.3200, for a break of the bullish channel. However, if we see a break of 1.3182 (22 November low) our view shifts to being aggressively short.
Why we like this trade - Price action looks ripe for technical traders, with price holding above the 5- EMA, while also oscillating in a bullish channel. However, as mentioned earlier we are careful when entering this trade as stochastic momentum is presenting negative divergence (with price). While we have also seen a failed break of the recent high of 1.3323.
Fundamentally, we feel there is a mispricing of US and Canadian rate hike expectations in 2019 with Canada pricing in almost two hikes and the US just one. We feel the pricing in US rates is justified, but we feel the market is too optimistic on Canadian hikes, given the collapse in WCS since the BoC turned neutral in October. While we keep out initial position to a minimum a daily close through 1.3323 and we would add to the position.
Disclaimer.
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
Why we like this trade - Price action looks ripe for technical traders, with price holding above the 5- EMA, while also oscillating in a bullish channel. However, as mentioned earlier we are careful when entering this trade as stochastic momentum is presenting negative divergence (with price). While we have also seen a failed break of the recent high of 1.3323.
Fundamentally, we feel there is a mispricing of US and Canadian rate hike expectations in 2019 with Canada pricing in almost two hikes and the US just one. We feel the pricing in US rates is justified, but we feel the market is too optimistic on Canadian hikes, given the collapse in WCS since the BoC turned neutral in October. While we keep out initial position to a minimum a daily close through 1.3323 and we would add to the position.
Disclaimer.
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation
交易結束：達到停損點
Trade closed, stop of 1.3200 reached.註釋
Interesting to note - a daily close below 1.32 would have kept this trade active and into a long profit.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
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這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。