USDCAD Analysis: Tariff Impact & Technical Outlook

Looking at the USDCAD chart, we've seen interesting price action that I believe presents a trading opportunity.

The significant breakout on February 3rd pushed price above the 1.44 level with strong momentum. This wasn't random - it coincided with increasing tariff speculation, as trade policy uncertainty typically impacts the USD-CAD relationship substantially given their close economic ties.

Currently trading around 1.43, USDCAD has pulled back from recent highs but remains in a solid uptrend, as confirmed by the ascending trendline EMA200 (pink). I'm watching for a potential bounce from current levels, as any new tariff announcements could reignite USD strength.

The COT data shows institutional positioning has decreased recently, but remains net long overall. This suggests big players haven't abandoned their bullish USD outlook despite the recent consolidation.

Key levels I'm monitoring:
Support 1.42 zone
Resistance: Previous high near 1.44-1.45
VRVP shows significant interest around the 1.43-1.44 area

I believe if upcoming tariff news triggers volatility, we could see a retest of range highs with potential for further upside. The fundamentals support continued USD strength in this environment, especially if global uncertainty increases.