Short USD Anticipating Bad Data
USD Analysis:
- Positioning: Net Long, most in USDCHF, no pair is Net Short
- Price action: Net Short at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. USDCHF in particular is down.
- Fundamental: I think the ADP data will be a Miss while ISM will be a Beat thus Neutralize each other
Conclusion: ADP data miss will add to the overall bearishness of the USD Pair. Those USDCHF Long is the least well position for that so I will short USDCHF for ADP release. Whatever the initial reaction, I will look to reduce the position. For the ISM release which I expect Fundamental to be strong so probably that will affect my USDCHF short a fair bit.
Technical levels:
- Support: 0.97
- Resistance: 0.975
- Positioning: Net Long, most in USDCHF, no pair is Net Short
- Price action: Net Short at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. USDCHF in particular is down.
- Fundamental: I think the ADP data will be a Miss while ISM will be a Beat thus Neutralize each other
Conclusion: ADP data miss will add to the overall bearishness of the USD Pair. Those USDCHF Long is the least well position for that so I will short USDCHF for ADP release. Whatever the initial reaction, I will look to reduce the position. For the ISM release which I expect Fundamental to be strong so probably that will affect my USDCHF short a fair bit.
Technical levels:
- Support: 0.97
- Resistance: 0.975
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