Possible Short on USD/CHF

2018年8月5日

In an ideal situation, price action would consolidate and bounce off the 200 EMA again, as seen @ .9932, and back up to retest the supply zone @ around .9958. We also have a confluence at this level as this price is where we see the resistance of TWO confirmed bearish trendlines. However.. I believe we will see one of two situations:

-Price will be driven from its current price at .9938 immediately to .9958, if not past to .9965 (a key level and top of supply zone), where price will be rejected as previously seen.
-Price will drop to around .9932 to retest and consolidate at the 200 EMA, likely until Monday, where it will either go for a retest the supply zone (@ .9958) or it will break the 200 EMA and retest the .9921-.9925 area.

The DXY has closed at a major resistance level @ 95.18, and is likely to retest the 50 EMA on the D1, which would drive USD/CHF down, as they are correlated. It seems that the DXY is making lower highs.

However - I am not taking any positions until I see my leading indicators (DXY, XAUUSD) upon market open.

Why? Back to my ideal situation. I only take positions I find to have at least a 2:1 reward to risk ratio. I am willing to take a more confirmed position if its 1.5:1, however that's it.

That being the case, I will be only taking a position if we see price tap around the .9958 area. I will not be using a sell limit due to spreads and not wanting to have to deal with that. My stop loss will be at .9988 which will be a 30 pip stop loss. This stop will be above the high on 7-27-2018, right above a major resistance.

Our TP1 will be right above the next demand zone we see. This is around .9906 which would be around 51 pips. We have seen rejections around this level however I expect price action to drive us past this level to retest our major demand zone at .9886 due to the expectation of DXY (currently in a bullish wedge) going to retest the 50EMA, which will drive price down.

Our TP2 will be right above the demand zone at .9886, which is a projected 92 pips from my expected entry.

I will be keeping a close eye on this trade on Sunday. In the event of continued bearish movement, I will analyze an entry point upon a retest, however, I am keeping my eyes on these levels.

Please let me know your thoughts.

2018年8月5日

註釋

Looks like we see momentum driving price upwards, on the 15M we see a EMA cross of (14 & 50). Still waiting for price to drive to around .9958.

2018年8月6日

註釋

Seeing consolidation around a minor resistance level at .9946. Price action still bullish, no lower lows at this point. Price will likely break and retest this level before reaching established supply zone.

2018年8月6日

註釋

Actually TP2 is at .9866 not .9886. Excuse the typo.

2018年8月7日

註釋

Our stop loss was missed by 3.8 pips. DXY continued in the bullish direction, creating higher highs, however, it also retested a major resistance level of 95.52. This level is confirmed by the three additional retests set on 6/21/18, 6/28/18, 7/19/18 as best seen on the 1H time frame. If the cycle continues, we should see a sharp reversal on the index. We are still hanging in there.

As far as on USD/CHF... on the 4H we see respect for the top of our acknowledged supply (technically... now demand) zone. We will see where this bullish push closes on the 4H before we will likely see any breakout. I also drew a bearish fib retracement on the D1 from a high of 1.0067 to a low of .9876, a 200 pip range. Price action at this moment (10:45 PM CST Aug. 6, 2018) is consolidating around the .5 fib level where I expect to see a "drawn-out" reversal. By that I mean I am not expecting a sharp spike, however I am expecting a reversal from this level after we retested a key level around the .9965 area. On the other hand, we could be setting a lower low for a continuation of this bullish movement.

Looking at XAU/USD on D1 we see strong bearish momentum stopped hard at a 1206.61. For the last four days we have been in a channel ranging from 1206.61 to 1217.88. With the hard rejections we've seen today in attempt to create lower lows, we should be expecting a breakout soon. The last 8/9 weeks for XAU/USD have been bearish. We are at a major support level and there is "pressure" building up.

2018年9月4日

交易結束：目標達成