USD/CHF Top-Down Analysis and Weekly Outlook
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1. Chart Phases and Wyckoff Elements
Phase A (Accumulation and Distribution):
This is marked in two key areas:
Phase A Accumulation (at the bottom left): Indicates the initial formation of the price bottom after a downtrend.
Phase A Distribution (at the top right): Indicates the potential for price topping before a reversal.
Key Wyckoff concepts in Accumulation:
SC (Selling Climax): The lowest point in the accumulation, showing strong selling followed by buying support.
AR (Automatic Rally): A sharp bounce indicating the end of panic selling.
ST (Secondary Test): Price retests previous lows to confirm strength.
Phase B and Phase C:
Phase B: Represents the price consolidation and preparation for the next trend direction.
Phase C: Tests the strength of the support/resistance and prepares for the breakout in the new trend.
2. Elliott Wave Annotations
Wave Count:
The chart includes Elliott Wave labeling, showing the progression through Wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v). This represents the impulse wave structure, typically seen in a trending market.
Wave 3 (0.89243): The critical third wave that must not be invalidated, as it would disrupt the Elliott structure. This is marked by the line labeled “INVALIDATION FOR WAVE 3”.
Fibonacci Relationships:
Several Fibonacci levels are referenced:
2.618 (0.88570): This suggests an extension level for Wave 3.
0.618 and 0.5 retracements: These indicate potential support or invalidation zones (e.g., 0.86657 at Wave 4).
0.382 (0.87179): Common retracement level within a corrective wave structure.
3. Volume Profile and Points of Control (POC)
POC Zones (Point of Control):
POC (3): Indicates a high-volume node where price consolidation occurred. This is an important area to watch for support/resistance transitions.
Volume Nodes:
These areas (shown with horizontal bars) represent where significant buying or selling occurred, which traders often use as benchmarks for future support/resistance.
4. Price Key Levels
Key Price Levels:
Support Line (AR Distribution): Found around 0.88121 in the upper-right section.
Resistance Lines:
0.88770: A resistance level labeled as BC Distribution.
0.89168: Another resistance level at the apex of the distribution.
Other Critical Levels:
0.83700: Marked as an “Invalidation Point” at the lower boundary, indicating where bullish scenarios are no longer valid.
0.86657: A potential stop-loss level mentioned within the Wave 4 corrective phase.
5. CHoCH, MSS, and OB Terms
CHoCH (Change of Character):
Found in the Phase B Accumulation zone, suggesting a potential trend reversal as the market transitions from a downtrend to an uptrend.
MSS (Market Structure Shift):
Similar to CHoCH, but specific to market structure breaking above key levels, confirming bullish momentum.
OB (Order Block):
Bullish OB (Potential Support): Found around 0.86551, indicating a high-probability area for price to react and potentially reverse upward.
6. Forecast Arrows and Future Price Paths
Projected Price Movement:
The red and gray arrows on the right predict potential paths:
A corrective move down to test lower levels (e.g., Wave 4 zones like 0.87116).
A final move upward to complete Wave 5 (above 0.89243).
7. Actionable Insights
Invalidation Points:
If the price moves below 0.83700, the bullish Elliott Wave structure would be invalidated.
For Wave 4, a retracement below 0.618 (0.85949) could disrupt the bullish count.
Possible Entries/Exits:
Entry Zone: Around 0.86551 (Bullish OB).
Target Levels: 0.88570 (Wave 3 extension), with further potential to 0.89168 (Wave 5 completion).
8. Key Takeaways
Accumulation (left) is transitioning into markup, while distribution (right) might signal an eventual top.
Use the Fibonacci levels for clear entry/exit setups, particularly:
Long entries near 0.86657 or 0.86551 (OB/POC).
Target profit levels at 0.87751 (Wave 4) and 0.89168 (Wave 5).
Phase A (Accumulation and Distribution):
This is marked in two key areas:
Phase A Accumulation (at the bottom left): Indicates the initial formation of the price bottom after a downtrend.
Phase A Distribution (at the top right): Indicates the potential for price topping before a reversal.
Key Wyckoff concepts in Accumulation:
SC (Selling Climax): The lowest point in the accumulation, showing strong selling followed by buying support.
AR (Automatic Rally): A sharp bounce indicating the end of panic selling.
ST (Secondary Test): Price retests previous lows to confirm strength.
Phase B and Phase C:
Phase B: Represents the price consolidation and preparation for the next trend direction.
Phase C: Tests the strength of the support/resistance and prepares for the breakout in the new trend.
2. Elliott Wave Annotations
Wave Count:
The chart includes Elliott Wave labeling, showing the progression through Wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v). This represents the impulse wave structure, typically seen in a trending market.
Wave 3 (0.89243): The critical third wave that must not be invalidated, as it would disrupt the Elliott structure. This is marked by the line labeled “INVALIDATION FOR WAVE 3”.
Fibonacci Relationships:
Several Fibonacci levels are referenced:
2.618 (0.88570): This suggests an extension level for Wave 3.
0.618 and 0.5 retracements: These indicate potential support or invalidation zones (e.g., 0.86657 at Wave 4).
0.382 (0.87179): Common retracement level within a corrective wave structure.
3. Volume Profile and Points of Control (POC)
POC Zones (Point of Control):
POC (3): Indicates a high-volume node where price consolidation occurred. This is an important area to watch for support/resistance transitions.
Volume Nodes:
These areas (shown with horizontal bars) represent where significant buying or selling occurred, which traders often use as benchmarks for future support/resistance.
4. Price Key Levels
Key Price Levels:
Support Line (AR Distribution): Found around 0.88121 in the upper-right section.
Resistance Lines:
0.88770: A resistance level labeled as BC Distribution.
0.89168: Another resistance level at the apex of the distribution.
Other Critical Levels:
0.83700: Marked as an “Invalidation Point” at the lower boundary, indicating where bullish scenarios are no longer valid.
0.86657: A potential stop-loss level mentioned within the Wave 4 corrective phase.
5. CHoCH, MSS, and OB Terms
CHoCH (Change of Character):
Found in the Phase B Accumulation zone, suggesting a potential trend reversal as the market transitions from a downtrend to an uptrend.
MSS (Market Structure Shift):
Similar to CHoCH, but specific to market structure breaking above key levels, confirming bullish momentum.
OB (Order Block):
Bullish OB (Potential Support): Found around 0.86551, indicating a high-probability area for price to react and potentially reverse upward.
6. Forecast Arrows and Future Price Paths
Projected Price Movement:
The red and gray arrows on the right predict potential paths:
A corrective move down to test lower levels (e.g., Wave 4 zones like 0.87116).
A final move upward to complete Wave 5 (above 0.89243).
7. Actionable Insights
Invalidation Points:
If the price moves below 0.83700, the bullish Elliott Wave structure would be invalidated.
For Wave 4, a retracement below 0.618 (0.85949) could disrupt the bullish count.
Possible Entries/Exits:
Entry Zone: Around 0.86551 (Bullish OB).
Target Levels: 0.88570 (Wave 3 extension), with further potential to 0.89168 (Wave 5 completion).
8. Key Takeaways
Accumulation (left) is transitioning into markup, while distribution (right) might signal an eventual top.
Use the Fibonacci levels for clear entry/exit setups, particularly:
Long entries near 0.86657 or 0.86551 (OB/POC).
Target profit levels at 0.87751 (Wave 4) and 0.89168 (Wave 5).
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註釋
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GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.
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