USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

Past week saw a narrow range of 82.04-82.48. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.70 for further lower levels. The currency shows extraordinary resilience and refusing to move below 82. There is not much change in the earlier observations of the likely scenario which would be a consolidation between 81.70 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:
• The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
• Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105.
• The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
• As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
o This range is continuing to be protected
o The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.