USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

已更新

After an 8-week break from USD/JPY, I’m excited to bring it back to our watchlist as we prepare for next week’s trading! Over the past 9 months, this pair has experienced major shifts—from early-year expectations of Japan's monetary policy changes to the dollar's surge mid-year and the USD/JPY oscillating around the 150 zone in October.

Key drivers include Japan's inflation data, with the latest CPI rising 2.5% YoY in September. As market rumours of another intervention grow, what opportunities lie ahead? Let's explore the key levels, trends, and setups for the coming week.

USDJPY Technical Analysis:
As discussed in the video, the recent upward momentum is showing signs of easing, leaving room for a possible USD pullback. However, for a confirmed uptrend continuation, we need to see sustained trading above 150.000. Our detailed technical analysis focused on the current bullish market structure, with particular attention to the key level of 150.000, set as a pivotal point for the upcoming week. This level gains significance as a potential catalyst for a clear uptrend if buying pressure persists. The market's response to this level at the beginning of the new week will strongly influence the direction of price action in the days ahead.

#JapanInflation #USDJPY #Yen #BoJ #FederalReserve #Forex #CurrencyTrading #EconomicAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Finance

交易結束：目標達成

Following our live session yesterday, both buy positions hit their TP targets from my end, locking in approximately 230 pips. The USD/JPY found fresh buyers as market participants shrugged off concerns about potential Japanese intervention and generally cautious market sentiment.

The conviction that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to maintain its current stance on interest rates for the rest of the year—especially with uncertainty surrounding Japan's upcoming political leadership—continues to weigh on the JPY. Adding to this, the rising US Treasury bond yields exert additional downward pressure on the Yen ahead of Japan's general election on October 27.

Despite this, concerns that Japanese authorities could intervene to support their currency have prevented traders from going overly bearish on the JPY. Meanwhile, the softer risk tone could offer some support to the Yen, keeping the currency pair somewhat capped for now. However, the overall fundamental outlook still leans in favour of USD/JPY bulls, suggesting potential for more upward movement in the near term.

Stay tuned—I’ll be sharing a new trading setup on the 15-minute timeframe to guide our next moves today!

Good Morning

註釋

STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 Min Timeframe

交易結束：目標達成

See you during our upcoming livestream for follow-up details

手動結束交易

#USDJPY

Following our live session discussion yesterday, our buy position has been taken out as the Japanese Yen gained strength after some verbal intervention from BoJ officials. Additionally, a slight dip in the US Dollar during the Asian session added to the downside pressure on USD/JPY.

However, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s ability to hike interest rates further this year, largely driven by election-related concerns, is likely to cap any strong recovery in the Yen.

Meanwhile, the general expectation that the Federal Reserve will go ahead with modest rate cuts, coupled with concerns over deficit spending post-US election, is keeping US bond yields elevated, limiting any significant downside for the USD. Stability in the equity markets also supports the idea that JPY upside will remain limited, making the potential for dip-buying around USD/JPY attractive.

With the bullish path still holding strong, all eyes are on today's flash PMI release for fresh insights into the global economy. On the technical side, we have a new structure on the 15-minute Timeframe guiding our trading decisions for today's session.

Good Morning