USDJPY: We've seen the peak for now

2024年6月4日

Yen's weakness has been one of the biggest stories of the last two years, but we are set for a reversal in the near term.

Fundamentally, inflation and the economy are holding steady in Japan, and the carry trade looks very old.

In late April, the big reversal shook many carry traders out and opened the door to a near-term reversal.

This is a higher-risk trade for me than normal since the technical analysis is a mixed report.

The trend indicates more potential upside, while the candlesticks and chart patterns point to a reversal.

Momentum is neutral, encouraging an entry long, but the divergence demonstrates a sell.

Any more weak U.S. economic news could move this pair along quickly.

I think its current state is fragile.

I'll update this chart as it evolves.

OPEN SHORT

Trend: Bullish
Momentum: Neutral, Bearish Divergence
Japanese Candlestick Pattern: An Evening Star Reversal could be forming this week.
Chart Pattern: Possible Bearish Rising Wedge
Support and Resistance: 151.50, 148.50 are in play near-term.

U.S. ISM PMI and NFP could move the pair quickly this week.

2024年6月10日

註釋

Closed this trade for a small win +26 pips

I anticipate the Yen will strengthen more in the future; however, the time isn't now.