USD/JPY Bearish Gartley and AB=CD Pattern

2018年9月23日

USD/JPY Bearish Gartley and AB=CD Pattern

The bearish Gartley pattern formed in July is now being
accompanied by a bearish AB=CD pattern. I have posted
an analysis earlier based only the bearish Gartley pattern, but seeing
that a bearish AB=CD pattern has formed it reinforced my
earlier analysis.

At the moment price is running the risk of forming a
double top above - in fact it already has considering last
Friday's high reached the close level from July at 112.871
- though I say 'risk of forming' in that if price closes above
113.176 it would negate a double top.

This past weeks bullish rally could be, and in all likelihood
was, a response to this coming Wednesday's FOMC interest
rate decision. It is of course best in regard to that news
to stay out of this market, at least if considering a long
term buy/ sell and hold trade.

The key levels to look out for the end of this coming week
are the 111.700 intermediate support and the 113.176
resistance level. A close below 111.700 would signal a
likely retest of the 109.774 level, and a break below there
would target the 108.128 level and eventually perhaps
even complete the bearish Gartley pattern, thus, reaching
the 104.629 levels.

At this stage in time it is difficult to predict which way
price will go for certain, though despite the vast interest
rate differential between the USD and JPY some analysts
have predicted price as low 104.000 by the end of this
year since all the rate hikes have already been priced in
and other nations, too, are preparing to eventually start
tapering their low or zero percent interest rates.
I will post a second USD/JPY analysis after this one
highlighting the case for a bullish trend break out and
continuation.

Trade setup bearish 1 (RvR ratio 2.06)
Entry: Close below 111.900
S/L: 112.930
T/P 1: 109.774

Trade setup bearish 2 (RvR ratio 4.25)
Entry: Close below 109.535
S/L: 110.690
T/P 2: 108.128
T/P 3: 104.629

As always, scale out your profits and adjust your stop/ loss
to suit your personal risk management profile.

Happy trading