USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis

🟦 USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis (April 21, 2025)
📊 Technical Analysis
Current Price: ~140.72
Structure: Descending channel
Pattern: Bullish flag within a broader downtrend
Key Zones:

Support Zone: 139.70 – 140.00 (blue zone)

Demand Zone: 137.10 – 137.55 (strong support below)

Resistance Levels:

145.17 (intermediate resistance)

147.43 – 147.47 (major supply)

149.70 – 150.00 (psychological + previous swing high)

Setup:

Price is at the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing support.

Reversal zone aligns with a previous demand area + lower trendline support.

If bulls defend this zone, price may:

Rebound toward 145.17

Break short-term trendline resistance

Extend toward 147.43

Invalidation:

A clean break below 139.70 could send price toward 137.10

Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for long trades from current level with stops below the blue zone and TP near 147.4–150

🌐 Fundamental Outlook
🔸 USD Side (Bearish to Neutral):

Fed likely to pause or cut rates soon due to cooling inflation.

Weakness in U.S. CPI and softer economic indicators weighing on dollar strength.

Rising U.S. debt and global de-dollarization sentiment impacting USD outlook.

🔸 JPY Side (Weakening):

BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy with no rate hike in sight.

Weak yen has sparked verbal intervention risk, but actual BOJ action remains unlikely near-term.

JPY typically strengthens during risk-off, but with markets stabilizing, appetite for carry trades could weaken JPY further.

🔸 Geopolitics:

Escalation in Middle East could lead to safe haven flows into JPY, but so far minimal impact.

If tensions rise, JPY may temporarily strengthen.

🧠 Conclusion:
Price at key support within a falling channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming with upside targets at 145.17 and 147.47, especially if fundamentals align with a weakening USD and no BOJ surprises.