Our take on the Yen
Weekly Timeframe: With regards to the weekly timeframe, as long as price continues to trade above the weekly swap level at 115.50, our overall bias on the USD/JPY pair will remain long. To the upside, we do not see any ‘heavy’ resistance coming into the market until the price reaches 122.18.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand shows that price is currently trading within daily supply (119.95-119.14) at the moment. This area of supply remains a key obstacle to a move towards a drop-base-drop daily supply area seen above at 122.61-121.54, which if you look back to the weekly timeframe, you’ll see it beautifully encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr swap area at 118.48-118.33 was clearly supportive enough to allow strong buyers into the market yesterday. This saw price rocket north past both the 119.00 level and a 4hr supply area at 119.31-119.12 (located just within the daily supply area mentioned above at 119.95-119.14).
The break above this 4hr supply area is very significant to us, since the path north is now potentially clear up to around the 4hr supply area seen at 120.63-120.39 (located above the daily supply area just mentioned at 119.95-119.14). Therefore, if we bought (since the path is now likely clear), we would effectively be buying into daily supply, right? That is correct, and is something we would usually not consider. However, take a look to the left of current price and see how the aforementioned daily supply area is structured. Notice how it was formed by small pockets of supply that have likely already been consumed by the wicks seen at:119.75/119.86, this likely means that this daily supply area is vulnerable and could easily see a break.
Knowing the above is all well and good, and price may indeed move in our desired direction, but how could one take advantage of this potential rally? Well, for us, we see two areas to watch for buying opportunities:
1. The 119.00 handle. This level will require lower timeframe confirmation since there is very little stopping price from faking lower here.
2. The 4hr demand area at 118.32-118.54. This area is where pro money likely made the decision to break out north, hence there may well be unfilled buy orders left here. For this reason, our team has decided to place a pending buy order at 118.57 with a stop set below at 118.27.
The ultimate target for both areas is the 4hr supply area mentioned above at 120.63-120.39 as per the green arrows.
Current buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: watching for lower timeframe confirmation around 119.00 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 118.57 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.27).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand shows that price is currently trading within daily supply (119.95-119.14) at the moment. This area of supply remains a key obstacle to a move towards a drop-base-drop daily supply area seen above at 122.61-121.54, which if you look back to the weekly timeframe, you’ll see it beautifully encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr swap area at 118.48-118.33 was clearly supportive enough to allow strong buyers into the market yesterday. This saw price rocket north past both the 119.00 level and a 4hr supply area at 119.31-119.12 (located just within the daily supply area mentioned above at 119.95-119.14).
The break above this 4hr supply area is very significant to us, since the path north is now potentially clear up to around the 4hr supply area seen at 120.63-120.39 (located above the daily supply area just mentioned at 119.95-119.14). Therefore, if we bought (since the path is now likely clear), we would effectively be buying into daily supply, right? That is correct, and is something we would usually not consider. However, take a look to the left of current price and see how the aforementioned daily supply area is structured. Notice how it was formed by small pockets of supply that have likely already been consumed by the wicks seen at:119.75/119.86, this likely means that this daily supply area is vulnerable and could easily see a break.
Knowing the above is all well and good, and price may indeed move in our desired direction, but how could one take advantage of this potential rally? Well, for us, we see two areas to watch for buying opportunities:
1. The 119.00 handle. This level will require lower timeframe confirmation since there is very little stopping price from faking lower here.
2. The 4hr demand area at 118.32-118.54. This area is where pro money likely made the decision to break out north, hence there may well be unfilled buy orders left here. For this reason, our team has decided to place a pending buy order at 118.57 with a stop set below at 118.27.
The ultimate target for both areas is the 4hr supply area mentioned above at 120.63-120.39 as per the green arrows.
Current buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: watching for lower timeframe confirmation around 119.00 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 118.57 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.27).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
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