🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY Weekly Plan – CPI Could Trigger Reversal

🌍 Macro Outlook – Inflation in Focus This Week
USDJPY is entering a critical week with high-impact US economic releases, particularly inflation and retail sales data, which could strongly influence dollar momentum.

🔔 Key Events (GMT):
Tuesday (Jul 15)
– US Core CPI, CPI m/m, CPI y/y
– Empire State Manufacturing Index

Wednesday (Jul 16)
– US PPI (Core + Headline)
– UK CPI y/y

Thursday (Jul 17)
– US Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
– GBP Labour Market Report

Friday (Jul 18)
– US Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations

⚠️ Higher-than-expected inflation could drive USDJPY toward fresh highs.
But if data cools or jobs data weakens, JPY strength may pull the pair back down sharply.

📊 Technical Analysis – H4 Smart Money Structure
🔻 SELL ZONE
147.800 – 148.000

SL: 148.300

Weekly high with strong liquidity

Diagonal resistance and BOS (Break of Structure) area

Rejection expected if CPI cools or yields drop

🟢 BUY REACTION ZONE
144.300 – 144.100

SL: 144.000

FVG + previous supply turned demand

Good for a bounce or short-term scalp

🟢 STRONG DEMAND ZONE
142.500 – 142.300

SL: 142.000

Aligned with trendline and structural low

Swing entry if price dumps post-news

🧠 Market Structure Insight:
USDJPY still trending upwards, but RSI divergence and liquidity sweep suggest correction is likely.

Price could form a lower high near 147.800 before retracing to deeper zones.

Key confluences align with macro data timing.

🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔹 Scenario 1 – Short Setup
Entry: 147.800–148.000

SL: 148.300

TP1: 146.000

TP2: 144.300

TP3: 142.300 (Open if USD weakens)

🔹 Scenario 2 – Reaction Buy
Entry: 144.300–144.100

SL: 144.000

TP1: 145.500

TP2: 146.700

TP3: Open

🔹 Scenario 3 – Swing Buy
Entry: 142.500–142.300

SL: 142.000

TP1: 144.000

TP2: 146.000

TP3: 147.800 (if trend resumes)

🔍 Key Price Levels to Watch
148.000 – Weekly Liquidity Zone

144.300 – Short-Term Support / Reaction

142.300 – Swing Buy Zone

📣 Analyst’s Note:
This week, USDJPY direction hinges on US inflation data.
A hot CPI print may push prices toward 148, while weak data could drive a deeper pullback to 144 or 142.
Trade smart, manage risk, and don’t chase breakouts before confirmation.