USD/JPY indicating possible continued correction

Hi all,

Thanks for viewing. I am relatively new to TA and am not a professional. I am very new to FOREX and generally don't see it as an investment vehicle of preference. I am not currently in a FOREX trade. I am also not super careful with my wave degrees, only aiming to show smaller and larger degree trends, and avoid some wave degrees because I feel they clutter the screen. This is posted to further my own technical analysis education and is based on looking at the chart for about 10 minutes.

But this is a potentially very profitable set-up and I may not be able to ignore it if this scenario ends up developing.

Situation; in 2012 the USD started a bull-run vs the yen that ended peaking in 2015 +60% at ~126 yen / usd. FOREX is often described as having insufficient volatility to be profitable to trade - but that is quite a bull run. It also may have gone a little too far - as evidenced by the 2015 to present correction. My view is that the correction is a little over 50% complete. The A wave doesn't seem to resemble a single or series of zig-zag corrections and on the face of it appears to have been a 5 (larger degree) sub-wave corrective move to form wave A.

If my view is correct we also may have the wave 1 and maybe even wave 2 peak in place of wave C down to ~90 yen / USD. If I enter it will be on a break below the wave 1 peak as this holds the lowest risk of a relatively close stop-loss not being triggered. When the price has dropped quite a bit I will lower my stop to the break-even point and let it ride - unless I decide to play wave 3 and 5 separately.

The green box for the end of wave 3 is just a zone to track the progress of this call. The larger green box represents a 1:1 extension of wave A extended from both the wave B peak and also from the start of what I wave termed wave 1 to give a possible range. It is confluent with between the 1.618 and 2.618 extension of what is labelled wave 1 in wave C. My expectation is that, if this develops, wave 3 (most likely - as in wave A) or wave 5 is likely to be extended. Saying that, price may fall short of the 1:1 wave A extension, or it may even exceed it. I for one, will be very interested to see how this all develops. This scenario is consistent with my previous post on the USDX, although was arrived at independently.


Elliott WaveForexjpyJPYUSDUSDJPYusdjpyanalysisusdjpyshortWave Analysis

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