BO buying above 108 potentially hampered by HTF resistance
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the long-term pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Leaving demand at 105.70/106.66 unopposed Thursday, price action established a healthy bullish recovery, potentially inviting an approach to the 200-day SMA at 108.31 sometime today.
Should a close higher transpire, active supply is limited according to local price action until we near the 111.30 region along with familiar supply at 112.64/112.10.
H4 timeframe:
Initial weakness emerged on the back of soaring US weekly unemployment claims Thursday, though downside in the USD echoed a lacklustre tone with resurgent demand lifting the US dollar index to highs beyond the 100.00 handle. This, as evident from the H4 chart on USD/JPY, placed the candles within reasonably close proximity of 108.88/108.49, an area of supply that contained upside earlier in the week.
To the downside, nonetheless, it’s still worth pencilling in supply-turned demand at 105.75/105.17 as the next obvious platform (positioned a few points south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99), assuming we breach Wednesday’s low at 106.92.
H1 timeframe:
US trade watched price action produce a spirited recovery, after bottoming a few points off 107. The move powered through the 100-period SMA and grasped 108. Though traders witnessed a calming around the underside of the psychological band, recent hours saw price latch on to a fresh bid and take 108 to the upside.
Further buying here could see tops around 108.70 emerge, a previous double-top pattern, followed by a demand-turned supply zone at 108.84/109.23 which holds the 109 RN.
Structures of Interest:
The break of 108 will likely trigger breakout buy stops, perhaps bolstering intraday flow north of the number today. The concern, however, is seen on the higher timeframes – daily price could find resistance off the 200-day SMA around 108.31 and H4 price off supply at 108.88/108.49. Therefore, it could be an idea to factor the two said areas into the trade plan should a long position be taken above 108.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the long-term pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Leaving demand at 105.70/106.66 unopposed Thursday, price action established a healthy bullish recovery, potentially inviting an approach to the 200-day SMA at 108.31 sometime today.
Should a close higher transpire, active supply is limited according to local price action until we near the 111.30 region along with familiar supply at 112.64/112.10.
H4 timeframe:
Initial weakness emerged on the back of soaring US weekly unemployment claims Thursday, though downside in the USD echoed a lacklustre tone with resurgent demand lifting the US dollar index to highs beyond the 100.00 handle. This, as evident from the H4 chart on USD/JPY, placed the candles within reasonably close proximity of 108.88/108.49, an area of supply that contained upside earlier in the week.
To the downside, nonetheless, it’s still worth pencilling in supply-turned demand at 105.75/105.17 as the next obvious platform (positioned a few points south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99), assuming we breach Wednesday’s low at 106.92.
H1 timeframe:
US trade watched price action produce a spirited recovery, after bottoming a few points off 107. The move powered through the 100-period SMA and grasped 108. Though traders witnessed a calming around the underside of the psychological band, recent hours saw price latch on to a fresh bid and take 108 to the upside.
Further buying here could see tops around 108.70 emerge, a previous double-top pattern, followed by a demand-turned supply zone at 108.84/109.23 which holds the 109 RN.
Structures of Interest:
The break of 108 will likely trigger breakout buy stops, perhaps bolstering intraday flow north of the number today. The concern, however, is seen on the higher timeframes – daily price could find resistance off the 200-day SMA around 108.31 and H4 price off supply at 108.88/108.49. Therefore, it could be an idea to factor the two said areas into the trade plan should a long position be taken above 108.
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