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$USD v $SEK - #elliottwave Points To Predictive Model's 8.9109

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Friends,

is expected to weaken in this pair, where an Elliott Wave carved out an outline of its Contracting Triangle through a series of 3-3-3 internal formations with more (leading triangle) or less (simple zig-zag) complexities.

This analysis replaces a recent one, as the Geo lost its geometric validation - However, the foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains in force with a resilient bullish target defined as:

- TG-Hi = 8.9109 - 01 OCT 2015

ALTERNATE PATTERN - BARRIER TRIANGLE ... BUT NO MORE:

Although price is currently perched at the top of a motive wave - which may or may not necessarily mark the debut of the expected ascent - an adverse excursion should be tolerable all the way down to the 8.03040 line - Crossing of the orange square would offer a fair advance warning.

Indeed, attainment of this 8.03040 nadir would convert the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle to a related Barrier Triangle, wherein its Intermediate points (B) and (D) would come to alignment.

INVALIDATION OF ELLIOTT WAVE TRIANGLES:

If and once price breaks below the aforementioned 8.03040 interdiction level, current analysis become null and void. However, the market geometrist would have to consider the possible nascence of a Wolfe Wave or Geo.

OVERALL:

An Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle has carved its geometric outline out of Intermediate waves (A), (B), (C) and (D), giving shape to its requisite convergence of A-C and B-D lines with zig-zag internals up to this point.

A forecast outline of the expected Intermediate wave (E) is drawn, using slopes of preceding dominant waves, and levels that have been defined as relevant to the Predictive/Forecasting Model.

Although Intermediate wave (E) is expected to pass beyond the A-C line, it is defined at the level corresponding to the Predictive/Forecasting Model which had valued the top at 8.91090 on 01 OCT 2015. However, this would not distort the Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle, but simply offer a common "overshoot", which is a distinct signature in this particular geometry.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

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註釋

Following is a cut/paste content of the technical comments made in the discussion thread. Instead, I am moving all of these technical comments and chart updates to this "Update Status", so as to keep the chronology clear and uncluttered:

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19 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price jumps from consolidation base as forecast; Remains close to wave-A development of minor A-B-C formation of Intermediate (E):

The background geometry remains that of an Elliott Wave's Contracting Triangle, whereas foreground Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on its bullish target at 8.9109 from 01 OCT 2015.

David Alcindor
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註釋

22 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price moved on up right off as forecast; Now nears the 8.45858 defined as a probable R/S level of retracement (not reversal) significant:

David Alcindor

註釋

29 OCT 2915 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Finer grain H4 timeframe suggest probable interim retracement (not reversal) with downside probability as shown:

David Alcindor

註釋

29 OCT 2015 - Chart Update - Addendum:

Looking at the overall field, retracement mentioned in H4 would simply take price back vicinity of prior R/S level, or at time of forecast:

David Alcindor

註釋

26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

A break above upper border of the geometry calls into probability of a loftier target, TG-Hix = 8.98989 - 26 NOV 2015 (Among qualitative targets, TG-Hix are of lesser probability than TG-Hi ... Think of it as an elastic straining to recoil back towards the core of the geometry):