USD/SEK 1H Chart: Rate tests 55-day SMA

2018年7月25日

Upside risks prevailed in the market at the beginning of July, thus sending the US Dollar 3.10% higher against the Swedish Krona. Half of these gains were erased during the previous trading week, as the pair had returned near the 8.80 mark at the time of this analysis.

The Greenback has already fallen below the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs. If the 55-day one likewise surrenders at 8.7950, it might be considered that a medium-term decline is in sight.

The following trading days are likely to come with a slight correction north until the monthly PP and the 55-period SMA at 8.85, as bears could lack the necessary momentum to dash through the 55-day SMA at first. This up-move might also lead the rate until a trend-line located near 8.92 is reached.

2018年8月17日

評論

The USD/SEK exchange rate has been tended north since the beginning of August when it reversed from the senior channel near 8.75. By the time of this analysis, the rate had reached the 9.25 mark, breached a medium-term channel and retraced from the upper boundary of this pattern.

The most common scenario for such a breakout would be a surge towards the upper channel line located circa 9.45. However, technical indicators suggest that this advance might not be immediate, as some downward pressure is likely to push the rate down to the 200-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs at 9.10 or slightly lower within the following sessions.

It is expected that the bullish scenario eventually prevails in the market and thus allows the pair to reach the 9.45/50 area.