Initially in my last update, I was expecting USDT.D to push into daily supply levels after taking the swing low from the prior daily higher low — pulling back into supply before continuing lower after the market structure break.
Instead, it pushed even deeper, taking out the range low swing at 4.56%, which allowed BTC to break higher and tag its ATH by taking major upside liquidity.
Since then, we’ve seen a cool-off from those levels. Supply has come in across majors (notably TOTAL), and I’ve been tracking the local range forming in USDT.D — forecasting a reversal back into supply. That reversal is now starting to show itself, with USDT.D rising as BTC and alts pull back.
I'm currently watching for a push into the 5.0% – 5.6% supply zone, which I believe could mark the next major pivot point for the market.
From there, I’ll be looking for weakness or signs of rejection in USDT.D — which would align with BTC and the broader market setting up for another leg higher.
Once this supply is hit and the move starts rolling over, I expect USDT.D to begin its final phase down toward 3.73% — a key HTF demand and bullish reversal level. That would mark a major shift, coinciding with what I believe will be the macro market top forming across risk assets.
This level will be one I’m watching closely for DCA entries and scaling back into exposure — the reversal in USDT dominance from that zone should align with the last stage of the current cycle before distribution takes over.
1D:
3D:
1W:
3M:
Instead, it pushed even deeper, taking out the range low swing at 4.56%, which allowed BTC to break higher and tag its ATH by taking major upside liquidity.
Since then, we’ve seen a cool-off from those levels. Supply has come in across majors (notably TOTAL), and I’ve been tracking the local range forming in USDT.D — forecasting a reversal back into supply. That reversal is now starting to show itself, with USDT.D rising as BTC and alts pull back.
I'm currently watching for a push into the 5.0% – 5.6% supply zone, which I believe could mark the next major pivot point for the market.
From there, I’ll be looking for weakness or signs of rejection in USDT.D — which would align with BTC and the broader market setting up for another leg higher.
Once this supply is hit and the move starts rolling over, I expect USDT.D to begin its final phase down toward 3.73% — a key HTF demand and bullish reversal level. That would mark a major shift, coinciding with what I believe will be the macro market top forming across risk assets.
This level will be one I’m watching closely for DCA entries and scaling back into exposure — the reversal in USDT dominance from that zone should align with the last stage of the current cycle before distribution takes over.
1D:
3D:
1W:
3M:
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