Oil preparing for the another wave down?

2018年10月17日

Looks like oil is moving inside a big bear flag which can bring the price even lower. The longer term can and probably be still be bullish though. I think we will get an answer the coming 24/48 hours or so. Want to see the price get resistance around the 72.50. If we see that and the price turn slowly down again, it might be a good level to scale in. But only with some confirmation on the lower time frame. I am still not sure about the flag, could be another pattern. That's why waiting to see what happens first is important. I will try to keep you updated when the moment comes.

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Previous analysis:

2018年10月17日

註釋

So the market was even too weak to get to the 72.50, translating that into a fast dump in the price. We could still see a retest but the chances are big that we will reach that target area soon. It should not get back inside the flag.

2018年10月18日

註釋

Targets almost reached, so when being able to close in parts, i would start to do so. The target zone is around 67/68.5. I would move stops towards 69.6/70ish.

2018年10月22日

註釋

So OIL has formed another bear flag that shows a target around 66.50ish, but a second bear flag always becomes less reliable. There is at least a clear stop level of around 70.0ish (red zone).

I expect support around 67.50 (target zone from the original post) so i would take profit at least half of the position there and you could risk some with a tight trailing stop for the lower targets. This advice is for people who shorted around the 72.

2018年10月23日

註釋

Target reached, so take some profit now or just completely. This has become a massive win for the ones who shorted from the 74/75 or at 72.

When keeping part of it, at least use a trailing stop. The yellow could still possibly be target.

2018年10月23日

註釋

The yellow circle is also reached now, i would close the remaining of the position now or use a very tight stop of max $0.2/0.4.

2018年10月25日

註釋

This was just a perfect trade all te way down from the highs. Price got stable around the yellow target level. Looks like another bear flag that is getting formed. It is less likely that it will break, but it could still happen. If that former support level that is resistance now breaks, we could see more upwards movement. Higher time frame we can see the 66/65 is an important support level

2018年10月26日

註釋

Oil still moving inside that flag, if the US markets continue to drop today, very big chance that Oil will drop as well and break the support of that flag.

2018年10月30日

註釋

For the ones who are still in a short position in Oil, I would start to take some profit because we are at a very big support level now

2018年10月30日

註釋

This was the reason why i said to take profit at the lows a few hours ago (yellow circle):

-Very big support level
-Already made a huge drop from the highs within a few weeks. So it's usually just a matter of time until we make an upwards correction.
-Main reason, it started to look allot like this previous move (blue circle)