Opinion based only. Personal Analysis. With today's rally in oil I believe that both the WTI and Brent markets will now sustain this rally over the near/short term. My first resistance (R1) is at the $45.60/$45.70 level. essentially testing last months lows. My second resistance (R2) is testing the more yearly basis, where oil has bounced multiple times. However R2 could prove a very good technical indicator the resumption of the downtrend. I believe it is a every strong area/level to watch. My third resistance (R3) is in the $50 region, this being unlikely, but still possible. Many banks still have 2017 averages set at the $50 so we could see a test. Above that targeting, $52, $54. \my support levels are at the lows of the last weeks sessions. around $42 level. A break of this I could see $40 -> $39. But I do believe truly that $39 is the absolute floor. The reason for this is because of breakeven cost in the USA and other countries. The USA shale industry will be making next to nothing in profits per barrel. I've also being conducting research and I strongly believe that news press is too strong toward American oil too, and not the rest of the world. Since 2015, Saudi inventories have dropped 65ml barrels. IN addition the Qatar conflict i think will help rallies. Today we say a build in Oil of 118,000 barrels, however the product, gasoline, was down 800,000 barrel, above expectations. Client sentiment is important too. There are a larger number of individuals in long position as opposed to short currently. And something interesting is peak 'bear' news. The media seems to be biased on oil, bearish, but upon previous crashes in oil, again, when the peak bear news was being published, oil then rallied. This is just my opinion, I could be wrong! happy trading!
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