USOIL: Check lower levels after breaking out of the range

This is my previous analysis — feel free to take a look for reference.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/b8LtUjKy-USOIL-Price-breaks-out-of-sideways-sell-on-pullback/
OIL PRICE OUTLOOK
(Week of Oct 06 - 10, 2025)

1. Institutional Forecast Updates
● IEA (Sep 15, 2025):

• WTI targets $64.2/bbl for 2025 and $47.8/bbl for 2026
  
• Brent targets $68/bbl for 2025 and $51/bbl for 2026
  ● Goldman Sach (Jul 14, 2025):
  
• WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026
  
• Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
  ● J.P. Morgan (May 16, 2025):
  
• WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026
  
• Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
  

https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_eia_reveals_latest_wti_oil_price_forecast-15-sep-2025-181804-article/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-sachs-raises-brent-oil-forecast-second-half-2025-66-2025-07-14/https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-price-forecast

2. Key Drivers & Risks


🔹 Updates on Supply–Demand and Geopolitical News
*OPEC+ announced a milder-than-expected production increase of around 137 kb/d for November, leaving the oversupply outlook through 2026 largely unchanged.
*Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden have flared up again.
*U.S. inventories and weekly data: API estimated a draw of 3.7 mb (Sep 26), while recent EIA reports have shown mixed, inconsistent trends.
*Market consensus: Reuters’ latest survey keeps the Brent forecast at ~$67.6/bbl for 2025, unchanged from last month, with expectations for lower prices around $60 in 2025 and further weakness into 2026.

🔹 Watchlist for Next Week
*Official details on OPEC+’s November production implementation
*API / EIA weekly U.S. oil data
*Maritime security developments
*Any notable demand-side signals

🔹 Overall View
*Governments appear to favor keeping oil prices lower to support economic growth, though current levels are near or below breakeven for many producers.
*Oil prices are expected to gradually decline within a relatively narrow range of $70–$50, while potential supply–demand shocks remain key factors to monitor for any sharp volatility.

3. Technical Analysis

* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.

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George Vann @ ZuperView