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WTI Oil Navigator - Patience Key To Identifying Next Big Move

TVC:USOIL   WTI 原油差價合約
The most probable pattern remains either a flat (black count) or a double-three correction. There is no clean Elliott wave count for the rally since September 2017 besides what we label here if Elliott's rules & guidelines are taken into account. Hence a post-triangle breakout is unlikely for past days price action.

The red count suggests that the 2 weeks of price action corrected a 5-month swing. This is also a rather brave assumption. It is possible but not likely. Moreover, if that happened we would be right now in a 1-2-1-2-3 setup.

The area around the 66.52 level is crucial. We’ll identify a breakout if the market establishes Northbound of that. It is likely, that we see either a pullback before or a retest thereafter. Those may be the next interesting trading setups for oil! Patience is key to identify the next big move and enter into an attractive risk/reward trade.

We assess higher probabilities to the black scenario. We see a crowded US Dollar bear trade as well as on Twitter announced air strike on Syria as evidence against the red count. Oil has probably seen its tailwinds as well as short-term surprises from these catalysts.