We continue to be bearish on USOIL. Accordingly, we still maintain our price target of 90 USD per barrel of WTI oil. Indeed, we would like to change this price target from medium-term to short-term. Additionally, we would like to set a new long-term price target for USOIL at 80 USD.
Illustration 1.01 The sloping line acts as the resistance; the more touches it gains, the more important it grows.
Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. MACD is also neutral. Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
The banks (Central Banks/Fed) have to influence those running the companies or their geopolitical allies to bring the price down, after all, the Fed is looking for positive inflation numbers for a change; while oil isn’t part of the headline print, it makes up a large part of the detailed numbers. That is of course, until Biden and the globalists start up a new war on another front (China-Taiwan?). We’ll really have 200/barrel oil like JPM said; Goldman projected out to $350 LOL…what is that, like $15-20/gallon. Ouch.
Tradersweekly
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@Free_Loader, I view the oil market as dependent on the OPEC and other major oil producers (supply/demand) rather than central banks. I have reservations with JPM calls since they like to make their call precisely at the end of a trend. Also, I doubt we will see such high prices unless we will see some systemic disruptions (in regards to Russia, China, EU). The FED is poised to send the market into recession and oil producers are likely to hike their production in the future; time will tell. Thanks for the comment.
I agree with you, A negotiated settlement with Ukraine and bringing more Russian oil on the market. Also fears of a recession worldwide will drop the price of oil dramatically too. So those numbers are easily obtainable.
Realize you need fracking at about $100 a barrel to become economically viable too.
Tradersweekly
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@Valerus_Forex, For some American companies, that figure is much lower; some companies reported breaking even between 20 USD and 40 USD. But I do not know how that holds up in the current inflationary environment. Thanks for the comment.
SquishTrade
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Well done, 100% agreed about mid to low 80s target. Maybe even a bit lower by September?
Tradersweekly
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@Burning-Theta, Thank you, friend. I am thinking more of November/December for the 80 USD zone, up to 4-8 months from now. But if the OPEC manages to raise its production capacity, perhaps even sooner. Let's see.