USOIL Weekly Analysis – Major Breakdown and Retest in Play

5月18日

After several months of holding firm, USOIL has finally broken below its key support zone around $67–$70, which had acted as a floor since mid-2021. This is a significant technical development, and the current price action is showing a classic bearish retest of that broken structure.

Technical Breakdown:
Support Broken:
The $67–$70 zone was tested multiple times over the past 2 years. Price has now cleanly broken through it and is struggling to reclaim it.

Retest in Progress:
Price is currently hovering around $62.36 and failing to push back above the broken support. This retest is textbook and could confirm further downside.

Market Structure:
Lower highs and lower lows dominate the weekly chart = clear bearish trend.

Bearish Targets:
Target 1: $53.50 – Previous minor demand zone from 2021.
Target 2: $41.50 – Strong historical support and potential major bounce area.

Invalidation Zone:
If price closes above $70 on the weekly chart, the breakdown would be invalidated and we’ll reconsider our bias.

Confluence:
Broken multi-year support
Bearish retest on weekly timeframe
Clear downside liquidity below

Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Setup: Short on confirmation of rejection below $67
Timeframe: Weekly / Daily

This is a high-probability setup if the rejection continues. Look for further bearish price action on the daily or 4H chart for refined entries. As always, manage risk carefully.

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5月18日

註釋

Trading Psychology Insight – The Retest Trap

Quick mindset lesson related to this USOIL setup:

When price breaks a major support and then retests it, most traders get caught off guard.

Here’s what usually happens:

FOMO kicks in: Traders see the bounce and assume the move is reversing.

Hope bias takes over: They ignore structure and think it’s a fakeout.

They enter long right into smart money’s sell zone.

The truth?
Retests are designed to trap emotional traders.
Smart money uses this bounce to re-enter short at a better price.

The key is patience and discipline. Wait for rejection, confirmation, and then act not before.

Lesson: Discipline beats prediction every time.

Let me know if this helped ..