Crude oil rangebound - for now

1月22日

Crude was little-changed in this morning’s trade. Oil prices continue to hold within a relatively tight range which has established itself since the beginning of this year. The front-month WTI contract has failed to break convincingly above $75 per barrel, or below $70, while front-month Brent has mainly held between $80 and $75 per barrel. Chart-wise, there’s a fair argument that both contracts are tracing out pennant patterns. Given that oil fell sharply between the end of September and mid-December last year, the pennants suggest an increased probability that this could resolve to the downside with lower prices. This sounds quite ridiculous given the terrible violence with continues to spread across the Middle East. Yet, it’s the continued dynamic of supply outstripping demand which dominates over rising geopolitical tensions.