Quick explanation why ICOs went so bad.
已更新
So the ico hype and craze came with allot of cool ideas. Here was one that raised 20 million usd ico and started off trading at over 1000 sats think all time high was around .34 cents usd. Down over 99.9% from ATH. Down 90% from initial ICO. Is it going to meet it's doom and lose all speculative value? What happens if it does? Does the company die?
Before getting into the technical Analysis I want to talk about why it is down so much as this is something everyone needs to consider before investing or even starting a trade. Overall valuation. What is it? how can we determine it with limited data?
Well to start off we need to look at how long the company has been around, who started it and how much they raised at ICO?
With Block V it is a little tricky because they have a parent company called Vatomic LLC they've been floating this idea around about the block v platform since 2015. crunchbase.com/search/jobs/field/organizations/num_current_positions/vatomic. Next we need to look at who's involved and what else they have going on. I'm not going to throw names on here but research will show allot of people involved in vatomic or Block V are involved with other business's that intend to use this platform, DYOR. So it leads to the Question is Block V they're main focus or is it just a platform they use to reach they're end goal? When Guys like Novagratz talk about them he mentions Vatomic the company and not Block V the platform. It's just a platform they use for they're other companies. When they get a partnership is block v creating these vatoms for clients or one of they're other companies like Vatom labs or Varius Solutions getting hired and earning the revenue? Yes they need the platform to work to use it but they do not need it to be a household name for they're other companies to be successful. Something any speculative investor needs to keep in mind.
Next Lets look at fund raising. They raised 20 million usd at ico for tokens that provide 0 share in the company. What have similar business's outside of the crypto space raised? Wikitude which is a similar digital object platform raised 2.1 million Euros or $2,332,575 usd in 2009. I'm comparing to wikitude and not others because minus the blockchain aspect the platforms are pretty similar. So 1 company raises 20 million with 0 stake in company to investors. The other raises 2.3 million and offers stake in company to investors. Wikitude raised 88.5% less money than Block V. Notice that % difference is very close to how much block v is down from ico price. Only off by a couple %.
Earned income. How does block v earn money since theyre token is down over 90% in value, How does theyre revenue model compare to others? You can argue at ICO they presold theyre product to users aka token holders. Those were they're inital customer base. you need the token to access the platform so it's part of they're product or platform. Yes they charge .02 usd per object created. To earn 1 million USD in revenue in 1 year or 5% of what they raised they need to sell or have 50,000,000 vatoms created. That's allot of objects. Wikitude just charges for the software $2,765 for the software license. They need to sell 362 copies to earn 1 million usd in revenue per year. Imo its much harder to get 50 million digital objects sold than 362 pieces of software.
Lets talk about maintenance, features and ease of use. Block V charges a $.02 cent maintenance or renewal fee per year for each digital object you create if you want to keep them on the platform. Wikitude is a one time fee for the software. Features. Although blockv says its a ar platform and has a AR app. However to use AR on a Vatom you still need AR sorftware, it only allows you to use AR on a vatom. Wikitude is the complete package. No other software needed to use AR on your objects. Ease of use, Block V is very hard to use because documentation and support is lacking, still missing features promised in white paper. Wikitude documentation is 100% complete they even have a no code feature to make it easier for non tech savy business's and people to use. A company using block V probably wont be able to create digital objects in house as the could with Wikitude. That will cut out majority of small business's using the block v platform when you think about it. It wasn't created for them.
Valuation. We can't determine how successful they have been to date. Can't tell how many different companies and agencies are using the platform or amount of vatoms being emitted per campaign or how often they are. You can look at the vatom map and see how many vatoms have been emitted though and although you see progress does it justify the amount they raised or its current market cap of $4 million usd? Wikitude has a current yearly earnings of $4.1 million usd. Just based off they're earnings you can assume they have more daily users on they're platform. Both independent developers and business's.
How the investor makes money? Block V you're speculating people want to use something and you will be able to sell what you bought at a higher price. The real reality is investors only bought access to use they're product. They also crushed investors buy delaying they're economic model. At least if you bought at ico it was 1 vee token = 1 vatom. New model is 2cents usd per vatom. So if you bought at ico and trying to make vatoms. They cut the amount you can produce by 10x since its current price is uner $.002 of a penny. They signed up to be a customer. Wikitude earns over $4 million usd a year, its profitable, Investors own part of the company it's a night and day difference.
Now lets look at the charts. With everything said above its pretty obvious price was gonna go where it did well before even looking at a chart. Vee has been in a 21 month downtrend. Out of the last 21 months, 5 months were green and 16 months red. It's not looking good. Looking on the weekly chart since July It has printed its third lower high to confirm that the trend is still down, there's no indications of letting up. Since it bottomed on September 9th it has printed its 2nd lower low on the weekly. On sequential it did flip from a green count last 4 weeks to a red count which also signals a reversal. Volume is allot lower than it was back in july and even lower than it was a year ago. That signals traders and speculators are not stepping up for this one. Also when a asset goes down in value over 90% from initial cost i think people generally don't want to risk getting burnt. As a investor or long trader you need the price to go up not a downward death spiral.
With all that said i see the token eventually trading between 1-5 sat level. Most likely no later than July 2020. We're still in a bear market the trend never changed. You'll get you're occasional pump and dumps because to 99% of people that is all this is. Its a utility token and has 0 value. It's access to use a platform that's it. Its not a investment vehicle or a token that should be traded. Speculation died on this one well over a year ago and that's exactly what the chart shows.
Will Block V die? No. All speculative value has disappeared though never to return. Even if the token trades at a 1000th of a penny the people that need to use the token will still be able to. If every exchange delists it everyone involved in vatomic and partnered companies will still have access to vee.
I created this post as a hope that some people in this space will read it and smarten up and do more due diligence in this space. Knowledge is power. The more people that can evaluate projects properly through research and TA the less people get rekt in this space. 95% of these projects should not be here. They only exist because of the exuberance of 2017 and these projects decided to take advantage of that.
Best of Luck on your trades!
Before getting into the technical Analysis I want to talk about why it is down so much as this is something everyone needs to consider before investing or even starting a trade. Overall valuation. What is it? how can we determine it with limited data?
Well to start off we need to look at how long the company has been around, who started it and how much they raised at ICO?
With Block V it is a little tricky because they have a parent company called Vatomic LLC they've been floating this idea around about the block v platform since 2015. crunchbase.com/search/jobs/field/organizations/num_current_positions/vatomic. Next we need to look at who's involved and what else they have going on. I'm not going to throw names on here but research will show allot of people involved in vatomic or Block V are involved with other business's that intend to use this platform, DYOR. So it leads to the Question is Block V they're main focus or is it just a platform they use to reach they're end goal? When Guys like Novagratz talk about them he mentions Vatomic the company and not Block V the platform. It's just a platform they use for they're other companies. When they get a partnership is block v creating these vatoms for clients or one of they're other companies like Vatom labs or Varius Solutions getting hired and earning the revenue? Yes they need the platform to work to use it but they do not need it to be a household name for they're other companies to be successful. Something any speculative investor needs to keep in mind.
Next Lets look at fund raising. They raised 20 million usd at ico for tokens that provide 0 share in the company. What have similar business's outside of the crypto space raised? Wikitude which is a similar digital object platform raised 2.1 million Euros or $2,332,575 usd in 2009. I'm comparing to wikitude and not others because minus the blockchain aspect the platforms are pretty similar. So 1 company raises 20 million with 0 stake in company to investors. The other raises 2.3 million and offers stake in company to investors. Wikitude raised 88.5% less money than Block V. Notice that % difference is very close to how much block v is down from ico price. Only off by a couple %.
Earned income. How does block v earn money since theyre token is down over 90% in value, How does theyre revenue model compare to others? You can argue at ICO they presold theyre product to users aka token holders. Those were they're inital customer base. you need the token to access the platform so it's part of they're product or platform. Yes they charge .02 usd per object created. To earn 1 million USD in revenue in 1 year or 5% of what they raised they need to sell or have 50,000,000 vatoms created. That's allot of objects. Wikitude just charges for the software $2,765 for the software license. They need to sell 362 copies to earn 1 million usd in revenue per year. Imo its much harder to get 50 million digital objects sold than 362 pieces of software.
Lets talk about maintenance, features and ease of use. Block V charges a $.02 cent maintenance or renewal fee per year for each digital object you create if you want to keep them on the platform. Wikitude is a one time fee for the software. Features. Although blockv says its a ar platform and has a AR app. However to use AR on a Vatom you still need AR sorftware, it only allows you to use AR on a vatom. Wikitude is the complete package. No other software needed to use AR on your objects. Ease of use, Block V is very hard to use because documentation and support is lacking, still missing features promised in white paper. Wikitude documentation is 100% complete they even have a no code feature to make it easier for non tech savy business's and people to use. A company using block V probably wont be able to create digital objects in house as the could with Wikitude. That will cut out majority of small business's using the block v platform when you think about it. It wasn't created for them.
Valuation. We can't determine how successful they have been to date. Can't tell how many different companies and agencies are using the platform or amount of vatoms being emitted per campaign or how often they are. You can look at the vatom map and see how many vatoms have been emitted though and although you see progress does it justify the amount they raised or its current market cap of $4 million usd? Wikitude has a current yearly earnings of $4.1 million usd. Just based off they're earnings you can assume they have more daily users on they're platform. Both independent developers and business's.
How the investor makes money? Block V you're speculating people want to use something and you will be able to sell what you bought at a higher price. The real reality is investors only bought access to use they're product. They also crushed investors buy delaying they're economic model. At least if you bought at ico it was 1 vee token = 1 vatom. New model is 2cents usd per vatom. So if you bought at ico and trying to make vatoms. They cut the amount you can produce by 10x since its current price is uner $.002 of a penny. They signed up to be a customer. Wikitude earns over $4 million usd a year, its profitable, Investors own part of the company it's a night and day difference.
Now lets look at the charts. With everything said above its pretty obvious price was gonna go where it did well before even looking at a chart. Vee has been in a 21 month downtrend. Out of the last 21 months, 5 months were green and 16 months red. It's not looking good. Looking on the weekly chart since July It has printed its third lower high to confirm that the trend is still down, there's no indications of letting up. Since it bottomed on September 9th it has printed its 2nd lower low on the weekly. On sequential it did flip from a green count last 4 weeks to a red count which also signals a reversal. Volume is allot lower than it was back in july and even lower than it was a year ago. That signals traders and speculators are not stepping up for this one. Also when a asset goes down in value over 90% from initial cost i think people generally don't want to risk getting burnt. As a investor or long trader you need the price to go up not a downward death spiral.
With all that said i see the token eventually trading between 1-5 sat level. Most likely no later than July 2020. We're still in a bear market the trend never changed. You'll get you're occasional pump and dumps because to 99% of people that is all this is. Its a utility token and has 0 value. It's access to use a platform that's it. Its not a investment vehicle or a token that should be traded. Speculation died on this one well over a year ago and that's exactly what the chart shows.
Will Block V die? No. All speculative value has disappeared though never to return. Even if the token trades at a 1000th of a penny the people that need to use the token will still be able to. If every exchange delists it everyone involved in vatomic and partnered companies will still have access to vee.
I created this post as a hope that some people in this space will read it and smarten up and do more due diligence in this space. Knowledge is power. The more people that can evaluate projects properly through research and TA the less people get rekt in this space. 95% of these projects should not be here. They only exist because of the exuberance of 2017 and these projects decided to take advantage of that.
Best of Luck on your trades!
註釋
I'm going to try and post something like this on a different project weekly.Please comment if you would be interested in that
註釋
No this is not a shill for wikitude. Weekly i will try to do one of these that compares a blockchain space company vs a similar company that exists just not in the over hyped blockchain space.The intention is for people to wake up and realized how over hyped and over valued this space is currently in. Don't be surprised if total market cap falls to or below 2018 lows
註釋
After browsing the block v telegram i noticed one of they're employees posted a bullish viewed chart in the chat. No ethical business would ever do that. The question is did he or anyone else sell after that chart was posted before the dump?No legit business would allow employees to conduct in this sort of manner. It is wrong in more ways than one.
At least he didn't get the pump he wanted.
Just another massive red flag for investors to look at
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