VIX Trade Plan – May 23, 2025

⚠️ VIX Trade Plan – May 23, 2025
📊 Instrument: VIX (Volatility Index)
🎯 Strategy: Long Exposure via Direct Shares
📈 Confidence: 70%
📅 Time Horizon: 3–4 Weeks

📌 Technical & Sentiment Snapshot
Price @ Entry: $21.88

Chart Structure:
• M30 / Daily: Bullish – above 10/50/200 EMAs
• Weekly: Mixed, but showing upward bias
• RSI: Neutral to slightly overbought
• MACD: Bullish cross on intraday; flattening on higher timeframes

Volatility Context:
• VIX up +26.9% over 5 days
• Backwardation in VIX futures
• Elevated VIX/VVIX ratio hints at further fear pricing

Headline Risk:
• Geopolitical + macroeconomic uncertainty
• Trade war tensions and surprise policy risk driving implied vol

🔽 TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Parameter Value
🔀 Direction LONG
💵 Entry Price $21.88
🛑 Stop Loss $20.14 (–8%)
🎯 Target Price $25.62 (+17%)
🧮 Size 100 shares
🏦 Risk Level ~1.5% of account
⏰ Entry Timing Market Open
📆 Hold Time 3–4 weeks

🧠 Rationale Behind the Trade
All 5 models agree on a moderately bullish short- to mid-term trend in VIX.

Momentum is supported by:

Rising geopolitical risks

Backwardated futures curve

Technical setups across intraday/daily charts

Entry point near $21.88 gives strong R/R if VIX spikes toward $25–$27 range.

⚠️ Key Risks to Watch
VIX Mean Reversion: VIX tends to drop quickly if risk subsides.

Overbought Intraday: May cause short-term pullbacks even in a bullish context.

Headline Dependency: Any peace deal, central bank surprise, or good news may instantly crush implied vol.

Liquidity Spreads: Use limit orders on open — VIX ETPs (e.g., VXX, UVXY) can see wide bid/ask gaps.

🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON)
json
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{
"instrument": "VIX",
"direction": "long",
"entry_price": 21.88,
"stop_loss": 20.14,
"take_profit": 25.62,
"size": 100,
"confidence": 0.70,
"entry_timing": "open"
}
💡 If VIX holds above $21.50 with momentum, this setup offers asymmetric upside. Stop placement near $20.14 helps protect against false breakouts or mean reversion traps.