Low vol due to Fed suppression, black swans await

2020年1月17日

Vol has been super low as the S&P has roared higher due to Fed not-QE. But there are black swans awaiting the complacent: hugely overbought major stocks especially Apple. Iran conflict re-flaring. Impeachment trial in Senate. The floor at this level makes the risk reward attractive.

2020年1月25日

註釋

Is Corona Virus our black swan? VIX up on Friday.

2020年2月1日

註釋

I rolled my active Feb VIX long from 12.70 into March for a discount at 17.20 booking profit and buying an extra month. Is it possible that this can turn into a major 2018 Vol type event?

2020年2月4日

手動結束交易

Markets seem to have fully priced in Corona. Let's watch the price action, maybe even an opportunity to sell back into the fall.