VIX Not Going Down Without a Fight 8/17/2020
已更新
VIX at the 4 hour view.
The VIX refuses to go below the 20-22 support due to the high number of calls by retail traders. Put/Call ratio was steadily below 0.75 until the end of the day. The VIX dropped mainly when the P/C ratio increased throughout the day.
The VVIX (volatility of the volatility index) acts as the implied volatility for the VIX. Right now, the VVIX refuses to close below 105. Meaning, the VIX is not quite done yet.
What's holding the VIX down? High liquidity levels. Liquidity levels so high that you can go scuba diving in.
If you compare the VIX and VVIX at the daily view, the VIX is jumping just enough for the VVIX to stay afloat above 105. It could mean 2 things. 1) The VIX is dying down and trying to survive. 2) The VIX is consolidating and buying time for a bigger jump in the future. Since the VVIX refuses to go down as well, I am leaning towards #2.
At this point of the wedge, the VIX is projected to make another small jump within the next 2 days. That's when the local wedge resistance should break. Maybe Thursday. I am not expecting a big jump at all. If it does, it would have to be from some sort of panic as a catalyst.
The VIX refuses to go below the 20-22 support due to the high number of calls by retail traders. Put/Call ratio was steadily below 0.75 until the end of the day. The VIX dropped mainly when the P/C ratio increased throughout the day.
The VVIX (volatility of the volatility index) acts as the implied volatility for the VIX. Right now, the VVIX refuses to close below 105. Meaning, the VIX is not quite done yet.
What's holding the VIX down? High liquidity levels. Liquidity levels so high that you can go scuba diving in.
If you compare the VIX and VVIX at the daily view, the VIX is jumping just enough for the VVIX to stay afloat above 105. It could mean 2 things. 1) The VIX is dying down and trying to survive. 2) The VIX is consolidating and buying time for a bigger jump in the future. Since the VVIX refuses to go down as well, I am leaning towards #2.
At this point of the wedge, the VIX is projected to make another small jump within the next 2 days. That's when the local wedge resistance should break. Maybe Thursday. I am not expecting a big jump at all. If it does, it would have to be from some sort of panic as a catalyst.
註釋
The VIX hopped a little today. However, I am skeptical since it will not close above the current wedge resistance. This happened before in the last two weeks. Although we are in gray territory, the action seems like a secondary jump may be by Wednesday night or Thursday. It's kind of hard to tell right now.
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