The VIX Dance Continues 8/20/2020
已更新
VIX at the daily view.
Well, I should've trusted my previous calculations. I said that the VIX would make a secondary jump on Wednesday or Thursday... and it did. I also said that it would just be a little hop due to high levels of available cash.
The VIX did 3 things that makes me think it's doing "the dance." That's when the VIX jumps every week just high enough to stay alive until the time comes when liquidity dries up.
For one, the VIX jumps every week just high enough for the VVIX to close above 105-110. So as long as the VVIX closes above 105-110, then volatility is not totally out of the picture. It just comes back later.
Secondly, VIX finally has an uptrend support on the RSI at the daily view... for now. It's been a while since the daily RSI had an uptrend support.
Lastly, the VIX's "price" is making a lower low, yet the RSI is making a higher low. That's a bullish divergence on the VIX.
If these conditions keep up, then it means the VIX is winding up for a much bigger jump later on. I would not try to time it. Seriously, it will take a lot longer than you would expect for a big VIX jump. That's when all the bears finally give up. If you look at my NQ post two days ago, you would be surprised how hopelessly stubborn permabears can be. Judging by the trajectory, I would say that the next VIX bunny hop would be around August 26-27.
Well, I should've trusted my previous calculations. I said that the VIX would make a secondary jump on Wednesday or Thursday... and it did. I also said that it would just be a little hop due to high levels of available cash.
The VIX did 3 things that makes me think it's doing "the dance." That's when the VIX jumps every week just high enough to stay alive until the time comes when liquidity dries up.
For one, the VIX jumps every week just high enough for the VVIX to close above 105-110. So as long as the VVIX closes above 105-110, then volatility is not totally out of the picture. It just comes back later.
Secondly, VIX finally has an uptrend support on the RSI at the daily view... for now. It's been a while since the daily RSI had an uptrend support.
Lastly, the VIX's "price" is making a lower low, yet the RSI is making a higher low. That's a bullish divergence on the VIX.
If these conditions keep up, then it means the VIX is winding up for a much bigger jump later on. I would not try to time it. Seriously, it will take a lot longer than you would expect for a big VIX jump. That's when all the bears finally give up. If you look at my NQ post two days ago, you would be surprised how hopelessly stubborn permabears can be. Judging by the trajectory, I would say that the next VIX bunny hop would be around August 26-27.
評論
I forgot that it's OPEX today. OPEX days are known to be choppy. That throws my trajectory off a bit.
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