Happy Tuesday. A new week, new market KPIs to look at. Since the ‘Liberation Day’ VIX spike to 50 it has been a bear market for VIX and has been going down since then. Since then, the S&P had more than 11 day of positive close for the day. This is which we would expect when VIX is making new lower highs and lower lows. But where does the VIX go from here?
It has been a remarkable trade to buy the indexes
QQQ and
SPX when the
VIX is at or above 30. And then unwinding the trade when
VIX touches 15. We have more than 10 days of positive closes in
SPX and the
VIX is at 17. So we might have some more positive return in the near term. And then we rinse and repeat the same trade. Sell the indices when
VIX touches 15 or lower band of this upward sloping channel.
Verdict: Stay long until
VIX @ 15. Unwind trade and then wait for
VIX @ 30.
It has been a remarkable trade to buy the indexes
Verdict: Stay long until
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