Decision Point for the VIX

2020年8月8日

The VIX is doing the volatility dance once again.

The VVIX was sitting on a major support at 105 on Thursday. The VIX corrected it by jumping just enough for the VVIX to stay above 105.

The VIX is keeping itself alive. However, it had to bounce from a major support at 22. 20 is the line in the sand. Next week, the VIX will have to make a decision. Break the wedge decisively or fall.

What's holding back on the VIX is high liquidity levels. Liquidity hasn't been this high since December 2019. Liquidity solidifies supports on the ES and resistances on the VIX.

I have a volatility jump projected middle of next week. The VIX refuses to go below 20-22 due to the insane amount of calls/longs in the indices. It's now a matter of time before a pullback. However, I would not gamble with trading the VIX at these high liquidity levels. The easy trade is to go long after the pullback or short the VIX once ES finds support after a pullback. Trading is already hard. Why make it harder by countering the trend?

2020年8月10日

註釋

After seeing an ascending wedge on the ES, I got the projected volatility jump from 8/10 to 8/12. It's somewhere in that range. The measured move in the ES is about 80-90 points. That's assuming that the ES pulls back immediate and not do a blow off top pattern.