How do you feel?
已更新
If you check at least 3/5 on the below we might be in the right place.
1. Depressed
2. Tired
3. Stressed
4. Scared
5. Out of money to buy more
I do not know about you but I have been through all of the above over the last 12 months! I made tons of mistakes no doubt about that! BUT i wIll not make the biggest one, panic sell at the bottom or in the first rally!
Some things to consider when you try to draw the picture of the next 6-12months
1. Advertising Costs or User Acquisition Costs ⬇ + NPS ⬆ ( What's doing Meow Meow on the roof???)
2. Shipping Costs + Shipping time ⬇
3. West Disposable Income ⬇
Why is Peter Selling? well, for a buyout to take place at least >50% of shareholders must agree! Now retail holds 39% + the previous 10% of Peter before starting selling makes 49%! you understand how dangerous that was for the Funds that they wanted to take over right? Probably the price is already set! nobody else besides peter is selling here! Now have a look here:
Vijay's Contract
"Restricted Stock Units. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted
an award of Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) for that number of shares of the Company’s Common Stock equal to $12,000,000 divided by
the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your
Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share
+
"Stock Options. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an
option to purchase that number of shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock equal to $16,800,000 divided by the average closing
price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded
down to the nearest whole share (the “Option”)"
The average closing price prior to the Start Date meaning Dec 21 was around $3.2 giving to Vijay the option in case he would stay with the company to hold around 9m shares or 1.3%.
So Peter's 10% + Vijay 1.3% + Retail 39% or more at the time since many got liquidated gives us >50%, if one of the funds holding 3-4% could be on their side the acquisition would be even harder to take place. Imo this is an ordered acquisition and Retail will pay for it! What a beautiful game!
Based on 670m shares float here are the % based on (simplywallst.com data and fintle.io)
Holders >1%
1. Vanguard together with its passive funds holds 84,819,961 or 12.65%
2. Blackrock together with its passive funds holds 37,909,425 or 5.65% + iShares (owned by Blackrock) 20,564,283 or 3.069%
3. Formation8 Partners 42,192,476 or 6.29%
4. DST Global 38,301,392 or 5.71%
5. GGV Capital, LLC 25,707,499 or 3,83%
6. General Atlantic Llc 16,888,478 or 2.52%
7. Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. 13,519,000 or 2.01% +5m call option + potential 0.74%
8. State Street Corp 13,349,046 or 1.99%
9. Geode Capital Management, Llc 8,442,463 or 1.26%
10. Comprehensive Financial Management LLC 8,406,736 or 1.25%
11. Renaissance Technologies Llc 8,264,800 or 1.23%
All of the above players hold together 47.45%! Peter already sold 3.63% and probably going for >5%, when we learn who bought in i think the price would not be where it is now!
From the 2021 Annual Report
"In addition, in July 2017, FTSE Russell and Standard & Poor’s announced that they would cease to allow most
newly public companies utilizing dual or multi-class capital structures to be included in their indices. Affected indices
include the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600, which together make up the S&P
Composite 1500. Under the announced policies, our multi-class capital structure would make us ineligible for inclusion in
any of these indices, and as a result, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other investment vehicles that attempt to
passively track these indices will not be investing in our stock."
IMO Peter's conversion from B to A opened the door for the acquisition ! Since they will scoop everything from their passive funds!
What's the price????
If the deal is done and you are the SMART MONEY wouldn't you like to purchase all the stock available??? I mean look at that depressed 39% that sits there! IMO 2 paths are possible depending on how the markets will do over the next 6-12months
1. If markets do well there will be an explosive rally to $3-5 towards the EoY, I bet most of you will take your money and leave at that point, the volatility (shaking) is going to be insane! RSI constantly overbought on divergence the opposite of what's happening now!
2. If markets do bad then 0.90-0.70 will do. I think a big % of retail will give up on new lows or on the first 100-300% rally.
Now IF and i say IF there is a buyout what would be the price? I would like to think of a price higher than the institution's average. Wish right now has no major shareholder (Peter is gone) I think VC's will likely dictate the price.
My guess would be something around 4-6x FY23 sales if markets go well! That should be in the range of 4-6b maybe a little higher depending on how sales would look in 23. That translates to a price of more or less $7-9 or Inside the GAP!!!
*Peter's Thiel Fund sold all of it's shares on the WSB frenzy for an average of $12 i think in the best best best case scenario that's the ceiling!
Do your own research and do not listen and trust nobody! In the end, we are all alone in this game!
Keep calm WGMI!
1. Depressed
2. Tired
3. Stressed
4. Scared
5. Out of money to buy more
I do not know about you but I have been through all of the above over the last 12 months! I made tons of mistakes no doubt about that! BUT i wIll not make the biggest one, panic sell at the bottom or in the first rally!
Some things to consider when you try to draw the picture of the next 6-12months
1. Advertising Costs or User Acquisition Costs ⬇ + NPS ⬆ ( What's doing Meow Meow on the roof???)
2. Shipping Costs + Shipping time ⬇
3. West Disposable Income ⬇
Why is Peter Selling? well, for a buyout to take place at least >50% of shareholders must agree! Now retail holds 39% + the previous 10% of Peter before starting selling makes 49%! you understand how dangerous that was for the Funds that they wanted to take over right? Probably the price is already set! nobody else besides peter is selling here! Now have a look here:
Vijay's Contract
"Restricted Stock Units. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted
an award of Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) for that number of shares of the Company’s Common Stock equal to $12,000,000 divided by
the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your
Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share
+
"Stock Options. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an
option to purchase that number of shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock equal to $16,800,000 divided by the average closing
price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded
down to the nearest whole share (the “Option”)"
The average closing price prior to the Start Date meaning Dec 21 was around $3.2 giving to Vijay the option in case he would stay with the company to hold around 9m shares or 1.3%.
So Peter's 10% + Vijay 1.3% + Retail 39% or more at the time since many got liquidated gives us >50%, if one of the funds holding 3-4% could be on their side the acquisition would be even harder to take place. Imo this is an ordered acquisition and Retail will pay for it! What a beautiful game!
Based on 670m shares float here are the % based on (simplywallst.com data and fintle.io)
Holders >1%
1. Vanguard together with its passive funds holds 84,819,961 or 12.65%
2. Blackrock together with its passive funds holds 37,909,425 or 5.65% + iShares (owned by Blackrock) 20,564,283 or 3.069%
3. Formation8 Partners 42,192,476 or 6.29%
4. DST Global 38,301,392 or 5.71%
5. GGV Capital, LLC 25,707,499 or 3,83%
6. General Atlantic Llc 16,888,478 or 2.52%
7. Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. 13,519,000 or 2.01% +5m call option + potential 0.74%
8. State Street Corp 13,349,046 or 1.99%
9. Geode Capital Management, Llc 8,442,463 or 1.26%
10. Comprehensive Financial Management LLC 8,406,736 or 1.25%
11. Renaissance Technologies Llc 8,264,800 or 1.23%
All of the above players hold together 47.45%! Peter already sold 3.63% and probably going for >5%, when we learn who bought in i think the price would not be where it is now!
From the 2021 Annual Report
"In addition, in July 2017, FTSE Russell and Standard & Poor’s announced that they would cease to allow most
newly public companies utilizing dual or multi-class capital structures to be included in their indices. Affected indices
include the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600, which together make up the S&P
Composite 1500. Under the announced policies, our multi-class capital structure would make us ineligible for inclusion in
any of these indices, and as a result, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other investment vehicles that attempt to
passively track these indices will not be investing in our stock."
IMO Peter's conversion from B to A opened the door for the acquisition ! Since they will scoop everything from their passive funds!
What's the price????
If the deal is done and you are the SMART MONEY wouldn't you like to purchase all the stock available??? I mean look at that depressed 39% that sits there! IMO 2 paths are possible depending on how the markets will do over the next 6-12months
1. If markets do well there will be an explosive rally to $3-5 towards the EoY, I bet most of you will take your money and leave at that point, the volatility (shaking) is going to be insane! RSI constantly overbought on divergence the opposite of what's happening now!
2. If markets do bad then 0.90-0.70 will do. I think a big % of retail will give up on new lows or on the first 100-300% rally.
Now IF and i say IF there is a buyout what would be the price? I would like to think of a price higher than the institution's average. Wish right now has no major shareholder (Peter is gone) I think VC's will likely dictate the price.
My guess would be something around 4-6x FY23 sales if markets go well! That should be in the range of 4-6b maybe a little higher depending on how sales would look in 23. That translates to a price of more or less $7-9 or Inside the GAP!!!
*Peter's Thiel Fund sold all of it's shares on the WSB frenzy for an average of $12 i think in the best best best case scenario that's the ceiling!
Do your own research and do not listen and trust nobody! In the end, we are all alone in this game!
Keep calm WGMI!
評論
I see an inverse H&S forming! if this is not the bottom I better see a psychiatrist...1) Everybody scared of R/S
2) Some scared of bankruptcy
3) Some are scared of the company going into zombie mode
I am not scared to be wrong and lose but i am selling 0 shares here
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