SPX and Fed Liabilities+Capital Correlation since 2017 (UPDATED)

2023年4月28日

Updated this to the weekly chart timeframe as I want weekly close updates, not Wednesday updates (that's when the fed data is listed)

2023年4月28日

註釋

if you're so itchy for the wednesday data on wednesdays. check the other one

2023年4月29日

註釋

if anyone is curious to my excuse for the 2018 divergence: inflation was pretty low, other central banks were not tightening, and jpow is a pussssaayyy

2023年5月15日

註釋

two straight weeks of pumping (though the divergence is still there) as more regional banks use emergency loans.

more pumping = more liquidity = fed put = we go higher
until then, GG i expect more downside, at least to close the divergence, maybe at 3900 spx, give or take some handles

2023年5月20日

註釋

I absolutely love this chart. Third straight week of pumping. The fed turns on the money printer = we go higher. Yes, it's that simple.

Still expecting a pullback into summer

2023年5月21日

註釋

I was wrong about MMF inflows. They dipped a little, but then they continued higher. Makes sense, banks aren't seeing deposits returning or likely going down! Why should they? Savings yields are dogshit.

2023年6月9日

註釋

The Fed is doing defacto QE right now. Massive liquidity pump this week. If you're short watch tf out