SPX and Fed Liabilities+Capital Correlation since 2017

2023年4月14日

Banking crisis saved this divergence. What happens when bank deposit outflows slow (which MMF inflows data suggests will happen, so far) and the Fed is free to go back to unloading the balance sheet?

2023年4月18日

註釋

Deposit data bounced back, waiting to see how tax season affects this.

2023年4月22日

註釋

Oh boy. That divergence is widening severely.

2023年4月28日

註釋

I'll try to keep this updated every wednesday with my take so here it is:

another tick down, started to see a nice little pullback. once the earnings nonsense is out of the way, I believe this divergence will start to close to the downside.

2023年4月28日

交易結束：目標達成

Posted an updated version with weekly closes, instead of Wed. closes