Oil Traders Brace for Impact: US War or Pullback?

6月18日

WTI Crude Oil – Intraday Update: Tension Builds Inside Rising Channel
1H Technical Outlook — June 18, 2025

🧭 Current Market Structure:
WTI is currently trading at $72.54, holding above key support but struggling to break through a strong intraday supply zone around $73.80–74.00. Price has formed a rising channel, gradually climbing with higher highs and higher lows—often a pre-breakout structure.

Momentum on the Stochastic oscillator is turning, suggesting the market is preparing for a strong directional move.

📊 Key Technical Levels:

Resistance Zones:

$74.00 – intraday supply
$76.00 – swing high zone
$78.00+ – war-driven extension target

Support Zones:

$70.00 – mid-channel & psychological level
$68.00 – previous breakout zone
$66.00 – bearish continuation target if war is ruled out

🔺 Scenario 1: US-Iran War Escalates (Bullish Breakout)

• If the U.S. launches airstrikes or there is confirmed military escalation:
  
• Expect immediate breakout above $74.00.
  
• Price likely to test $76.00, followed by an impulsive move toward $78.00+.
  
• Intraday traders should watch for breakout retest setups on lower timeframes (M15/M5).
  

🛢️ Market could price in a $5–$10 geopolitical premium per barrel within hours if conflict begins.

🔻 Scenario 2: No War / De-escalation (Bearish Breakdown)

• If headlines signal de-escalation or diplomacy:
  
• Rising channel may break to the downside.
  
• WTI could fall back to test $70.00, and if broken, flush toward $68.00–66.00 support.
  
• Watch for bearish engulfing candles, divergence, or momentum fading.
  

📉 Oil often unwinds risk premium quickly when fear fades — beware sharp selloffs.

🔁 Neutral Intraday Note:

• Price currently consolidating between $72.00–74.00 inside an ascending channel.
  
• Break above or below this range will dictate momentum.
  
• Wait for confirmation candle close before entering breakout trades.
  

🛡️ Risk Management:
Avoid large overnight positions — news headlines can cause gaps or whipsaws.
Use tight stops if trading breakout/down; volatility is news-driven.
Consider options strategies for limited risk exposure (calls above $74 / puts below $70).

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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

6月19日

註釋

Update: