I believe X to be near completion of bottoming pattern-possible drop lower so I'm hedged with a few puts but building longer term bull position- looks really good in my opinion. The top indicator is volume.. historically significant.
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I'm expecting a drop to 11's.. but I'm not dependent on that. I like to ease into positions and hedge with put options to cushion the drops.. if X dives, my put profit will go back into my long position lower.. patience 註釋
learning how important volume trends can be- x on daily.. potential big increase in volume coming soon and that could be lots of selling volume- we'll see! 註釋
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back to 11's and why I recommend a put hedge. Thankfully I took my own advise. We'll see if we can find support down here somewhere now.註釋
added some 202 calls in here in the low 11 range! I sold some puts, holding 1 in case it drops to sub 10.. I suspect X is going to have an enormous bull run soon.. this can correct a little longer but get ready. I can be wrong but the data is here 註釋
*added 2021 calls low 11's, still holding a put for cushion註釋
In my opinion, we are going to see a lot more volume come in 註釋
closer view on renko block 註釋
I found this interesting .. 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019(?) every odd year was a good bottom buy.. you could have sold the even years 2014, 2016, 2018... and timed this almost perfectly 註釋
Today was a big down day on X but looks all the better to me. I cleaned up the trend a little to demonstrate good entry's as well as exit's. I'm not sure how much further down it goes. I added just a little in 2021-2022 calls in the 15-17 strike range. I couldn't help but notice that the % shares short are higher than 32% last I checked! That is a tremendous amount of short interest.. 註釋
using a linear moving average in volume while using renko to identify price movement really brings about some HMMMM moments. I once believed volume was useless or incorrect with renko charts but I was not calculating it correctly. Since renko blocks only print with price movement, you tend to get a more honest perspective of what's going on. It eliminates noise in the price direction while tracking volume in another dimension.註釋
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us steel 4hr chart- looks good. This is normally where we'd see a strong pop up if this wedge has anything to say about the situation. Also note the bull divergence: 註釋
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weekly has positive-looking divergence: 註釋
are we there yet? Please wake me up when we get there 註釋
nope! Doesn't look as good as I once thought. I've been so bearish on all equities..but I wanted to believe in us steel. I had a low target mid 8's.. but thought that was overdone. I didn't think we'd come this low. I should have allowed my bear-biased view to soak into my other forecasts.. I've been chasing this since 11's.. and even with being very careful it has been an annoying distraction.註釋
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