Long-term Gold in a Time of Crisis

Black channel:
- main uptrend channel
- in play since 2013
- currently testing the top as resistance (weekly) or (probably) as support (daily)

Green channel:
- stronger uptrend channel
- in play since 2018
- still in play but it looks like a smaller downtrend channel is forming inside (red channel)

Red channel:
- downtrend channel
- possible LH on .786 fib. retr., aprox. 1500 EUR (round number)

Scenario 1 (bullish):
- red downtrend channel confirmed with a LH
- possible right shoulder forming around daily 50 SMA (green), between .50 and .618 fib. retr.
- daily RSI seems to agree with price action and momentum is slowing
- 4h RSI oversold and pointing downward
- 4h MACD looks like a bearish cross is on the way
- looking for ~1430-1460 EUR

Scenario 2 (bullish):
- alternatively, testing black channel as support (4h, daily)
- daily MACD bullish cross
- ~1560 EUR as resistance again

Scenario 3 (short-term bearish):
- still a fair change of happening due to the global pandemic
- after having successfully tested daily 200 SMA as support I believe this scenario is less likely
- we continue with the red channel (i.e. LH and LL)
- daily 200 SMA ends up working as support again
- or bottom of green channel provides support

註釋

Scenario 1 & 3 still in play.

Either way, price action should stay inside green channel for a good time to come.

註釋

Descending triangle (bearish):