Gold Bull Markets: Long-Term Overview & Current Market Update

前天

Gold Bull Markets: Long-Term Overview & Current Market Update (2024–2025)
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🏆 Historic Gold Bull Markets: Timeline & Stats
1️⃣ 1968–1980 “Super Bull”
• Start/End: 1968 ($35) → 1980 ($850)
• Total Gain: ~2,330%
• Key Drivers:
o End of the gold standard (Bretton Woods collapse)
o Double-digit inflation, oil shocks
o Political/economic turmoil (Vietnam, stagflation)
• Correction:
o Nearly –45% drop (1974–1976)
• Recovery:
o Took years; massive rebounds afterward
2️⃣ 1999–2012 Bull Market
• Start/End: 1999 ($252) → 2012 ($1,920)
• Total Gain: ~650%
• Key Drivers:
o Commodities supercycle
o Emerging market demand
o US dollar weakness, financial crisis fears
• Correction:
o ~–30% during 2008 crisis, but fast recovery
• Recovery:
o Rebounded quickly after 2008, then peaked in 2011–12
3️⃣ 2016/2018–2027 (Current Cycle)
• Start/End: 2016/2018 ($1,050–$1,200) → ongoing ($3,500+)
• Key Drivers:
o Record central bank buying
o Persistent inflation & low real rates
o Geopolitical instability (Russia/Ukraine, China/US, etc.)
• Correction:
o Only –20% drawdown in 2022; quick recovery
o Broke 13-year technical “cup-and-handle” base in 2024
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📊 Current Bull Market Stats (2025) – At a Glance
Metric 1968–80 Super Bull 1999–2012 Bull 2018–2025 Current Bull
🚀 Total Gain ~2,330% ~650% ~200% so far
⏲️ Duration 12 years 13 years 7–9 years so far
💔 Max Drawdown –45% (1974–76) –30% (2008) –20% (2022)
🏦 Central Bank Role Moderate Emerging Dominant
📉 Correction Recovery Years 4 years Months
🏛️ Technical Pattern Secular breakout Multiple peaks 13-yr base breakout
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📈 Top 10 Stats of the Current Gold Bull Market (2025):
1. Gold Price:
o ~$3,338–$3,364/oz; ATH > $3,500 in April 2025
2. Year-to-Date Gain:
o +29% YTD (2025); +30% in 2024
3. Central Bank Demand:
o 1,000 tonnes bought for 4th straight year; reserves near records
4. Inflation Hedge:
o Strong negative correlation with real yields; safe-haven demand up
5. Gold vs S&P 500:
o Gold +27% YTD; S&P 500 up only ~2%
6. Jewelry Demand:
o Down –9% in 2024, projected –16% in 2025 (high prices suppress demand)
7. Gold-Silver Ratio:
o Now ~94 (down from 105); silver catching up
8. Record Closes:
o Over 40 daily record closes in 2025; price consolidating near highs
9. Technical Breakout:
o 13-year “cup-and-handle” breakout (March 2024)
10. 2025 Forecasts:
• Range: $3,600–$4,000 by Q2 2026; some see $4,500+ if risks persist
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🔄 How This Bull Market Stands Out
• Dominance of Central Banks:
Central banks are setting the pace—record demand, making gold a reserve anchor again.
• Faster Recovery:
Corrections are less severe, recoveries are quick (months, not years).
• Synchronized Rally with Equities:
Rare for gold and stocks to hit highs together—shows systemic confidence in gold.
• Technical Breakout:
13-year base break signals powerful, long-term momentum.
• Future Outlook:
Targets as high as $7,500/oz (650% from cycle lows) possible by 2026/27, if historical analogs play out.
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⭐️ Recommended Strategy (2025 and Beyond)
• BUY/HOLD/ACCUMULATE on Dips:
Favor physical gold, gold ETFs (GLD), and miners (GDX).
• Physical Over Paper:
Preference for allocated, physical bullion amid rising counterparty risks.
• Diversify with Miners/Silver:
Gold-silver ratio suggests silver may offer leverage; quality miners benefit in the latter stage of bull runs.
• Long-Term Perspective:
Anticipate volatility, but higher highs are likely if macro themes persist.
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🧭 Summary Table: Historic vs Current Bull Markets
Feature 1968–80 1999–2012 2016/18–2027
Total Gain 2,330% 650% 200%+ (so far)
Duration 12 yrs 13 yrs 7–9 yrs (so far)
Correction –45% –30% –20%
Main Buyer Retail Funds Central Banks
Pattern Parabolic Cyclical Cup & Handle
Key Risks Inflation USD/credit Inflation, war, geopolitics
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Key Takeaways
• Gold’s current bull market is distinguished by relentless central bank demand, robust technical momentum, and swift recoveries from corrections.
• The macro backdrop—persistent inflation, global uncertainty, and sovereign de-dollarization—supports an extended cycle.
• Expectations for $4,000+ gold in the next 12–24 months are widely held, with even higher targets in a true global crisis.

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