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As the situation in the Middle East evolves in a complex way, the United States is trying to seize the opportunity of Iran and Israel reaching a suspension of hostilities to rekindle the hope of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. On Wednesday (June 25), US President Trump said in a high-profile manner that the negotiations on the Gaza issue are making "huge progress" and hinted that good news may come soon. After nearly two years of conflict and multiple breakdowns in negotiations, can this round of efforts really break the deadlock and end the Gaza war? . .
1. Taking advantage of Iran's ceasefire, the United States restarted the Gaza negotiations
Trump's optimistic statement
At the NATO summit held in The Hague on June 25, US President Trump publicly stated that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has created a favorable atmosphere for the Gaza negotiations. He confidently declared: "I think great progress is being made on the Gaza issue, and we will have some very good news." Trump revealed that his special envoy Steve Witkoff recently reported to him on the latest progress of the negotiations and said that "the Gaza issue is very close to reaching an agreement." This statement undoubtedly injected a shot in the arm for the deadlocked Gaza situation.
The "East Wind" of Iran's Ceasefire
Just hours before Trump's speech, Israel and Iran reached an agreement to suspend hostilities. This not only eased tensions in the Middle East, but also provided a new opportunity for Gaza negotiations. According to Arab mediators, Witkov acted quickly after the Iran ceasefire agreement came into effect, contacted Israel and Hamas by phone, and called for the resumption of negotiations. The mediator said that Hamas has expressed its willingness to return to the negotiating table, and Israel has conveyed its sincerity to the United States to reach an agreement. This multi-party linkage situation has brought new hope for the Gaza ceasefire.
2. The complex background of the Gaza conflict and the difficulties in negotiations
The origin and current situation of the conflict
The fuse of the Gaza war can be traced back to October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages. In retaliation, Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Gaza. According to statistics from the local health department in Gaza, the conflict has killed more than 56,000 Palestinians so far, and large areas of the Gaza Strip have been reduced to ruins. Although Israel insists that its goal is to strike Hamas armed forces, the number of civilian casualties is shocking.
The "hardest" problem in negotiations
Since the outbreak of the conflict, the United States has tried many times to promote ceasefire negotiations, but all failed due to differences between the two sides on core issues. Israel insists that Hamas disarm and refuses to accept the other side's permanent ceasefire conditions. Hamas hopes to ensure that Israel will not restart the war after the ceasefire. In the past two years, the two sides have reached two temporary ceasefire agreements, but neither has achieved lasting peace. For example, the two-month ceasefire agreement reached in January this year fell through after Israel refused to continue negotiations after releasing 25 Israeli hostages.
III. Highlights and challenges of the new round of negotiations
The latest proposed framework
According to mediators, the ceasefire plan currently under discussion is similar to the content of the previous months of negotiations, but there are some new developments. The proposal requires Hamas to first release 10 surviving Israeli hostages and the remains of some of the hostages who were killed. In exchange, Israel will release more Palestinian prisoners and commit to a 60-day ceasefire. After these 60 days, the two sides will enter a lasting ceasefire, and the remaining hostages and remains will be handed over one after another. In addition, Hamas requires the United States to publicly commit that Israel will participate in negotiations aimed at ending the war to avoid repeating the failure of the ceasefire in January this year.
Hamas's isolation and signs of compromise
As the conflict continues, Hamas's situation is becoming increasingly difficult. Its Lebanese ally Hezbollah and its main funder Iran have been severely damaged by Israel's military strikes, and Hamas's military leadership in Gaza has been almost completely eliminated. In eight months, Hamas has replaced three leaders, which shows its internal turmoil. However, Hamas said in a statement on Wednesday that it would "actively participate in the efforts of mediators" and was open to "any serious ideas that may lead to a comprehensive agreement." This statement is seen as a signal that it is seeking compromise under pressure.
Israel's position and pressure
Although Israel has expressed its willingness to negotiate, it remains tough on key issues. People familiar with the matter revealed that Israel had previously made ending the conflict with Iran a priority in order to focus on the situation in Gaza. However, whether Israel is willing to make concessions on core issues such as a permanent ceasefire or the disarmament of Hamas remains unknown. In addition, the United States' recent participation in Israel's strikes against Iran's nuclear program has also added complexity to the Gaza negotiations. Although Iran's retaliatory strikes have been relatively restrained, any fluctuations in the regional situation may affect the progress of the negotiations.
IV. The role of international mediation and future prospects
Mediation by Egypt and Qatar
As traditional mediators of the Gaza negotiations, Egypt and Qatar continue to play a key role in this negotiation. It is reported that Arab mediators are communicating with Israel and Hamas by phone and plan to hold face-to-face talks in Egypt. These efforts have been strongly supported by the United States, and the Trump administration hopes to consolidate its influence in the Middle East through diplomatic means.
Opportunities and risks of negotiation prospects
Although the current negotiations have shown some positive signs, challenges still exist. Hamas's doubts about Israel's long-term commitment, Israel's insistence on Hamas' disarmament, and the uncertainty of the regional situation may become stumbling blocks to reaching an agreement. However, the success of the Iranian ceasefire has provided a rare window for negotiations, and the active intervention of the Trump administration has also put pressure on both sides. If all parties can seize this opportunity, the Gaza conflict may be expected to usher in a turnaround.
Summary: Dawn of peace or another false joy?
The United States has restarted the Gaza negotiations with the help of the Iranian ceasefire. Trump's optimistic statement and the active mediation of Special Envoy Witkov have brought new hope to both sides of the conflict. However, historical experience shows that the complexity of the Gaza issue is far beyond imagination, and the resolution of core differences requires both sides to show greater sincerity and flexibility. With the joint efforts of the international community, can Gaza usher in real peace? The progress of the negotiations in the next few weeks will be crucial.
On the whole, if the US makes progress in the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, it may put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term due to the decline in geopolitical risks and the recovery of risk appetite. However, the uncertainty of the negotiations, the potential recurrence of the situation in the Middle East and the global economic background will continue to provide some support for gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to the progress of the negotiations and the trend of the US dollar to determine the short-term fluctuation direction of gold prices. In the long run, the safe-haven and anti-inflation properties of gold will continue to attract capital inflows, limiting its downside.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
As the situation in the Middle East evolves in a complex way, the United States is trying to seize the opportunity of Iran and Israel reaching a suspension of hostilities to rekindle the hope of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. On Wednesday (June 25), US President Trump said in a high-profile manner that the negotiations on the Gaza issue are making "huge progress" and hinted that good news may come soon. After nearly two years of conflict and multiple breakdowns in negotiations, can this round of efforts really break the deadlock and end the Gaza war? . .
1. Taking advantage of Iran's ceasefire, the United States restarted the Gaza negotiations
Trump's optimistic statement
At the NATO summit held in The Hague on June 25, US President Trump publicly stated that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has created a favorable atmosphere for the Gaza negotiations. He confidently declared: "I think great progress is being made on the Gaza issue, and we will have some very good news." Trump revealed that his special envoy Steve Witkoff recently reported to him on the latest progress of the negotiations and said that "the Gaza issue is very close to reaching an agreement." This statement undoubtedly injected a shot in the arm for the deadlocked Gaza situation.
The "East Wind" of Iran's Ceasefire
Just hours before Trump's speech, Israel and Iran reached an agreement to suspend hostilities. This not only eased tensions in the Middle East, but also provided a new opportunity for Gaza negotiations. According to Arab mediators, Witkov acted quickly after the Iran ceasefire agreement came into effect, contacted Israel and Hamas by phone, and called for the resumption of negotiations. The mediator said that Hamas has expressed its willingness to return to the negotiating table, and Israel has conveyed its sincerity to the United States to reach an agreement. This multi-party linkage situation has brought new hope for the Gaza ceasefire.
2. The complex background of the Gaza conflict and the difficulties in negotiations
The origin and current situation of the conflict
The fuse of the Gaza war can be traced back to October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages. In retaliation, Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Gaza. According to statistics from the local health department in Gaza, the conflict has killed more than 56,000 Palestinians so far, and large areas of the Gaza Strip have been reduced to ruins. Although Israel insists that its goal is to strike Hamas armed forces, the number of civilian casualties is shocking.
The "hardest" problem in negotiations
Since the outbreak of the conflict, the United States has tried many times to promote ceasefire negotiations, but all failed due to differences between the two sides on core issues. Israel insists that Hamas disarm and refuses to accept the other side's permanent ceasefire conditions. Hamas hopes to ensure that Israel will not restart the war after the ceasefire. In the past two years, the two sides have reached two temporary ceasefire agreements, but neither has achieved lasting peace. For example, the two-month ceasefire agreement reached in January this year fell through after Israel refused to continue negotiations after releasing 25 Israeli hostages.
III. Highlights and challenges of the new round of negotiations
The latest proposed framework
According to mediators, the ceasefire plan currently under discussion is similar to the content of the previous months of negotiations, but there are some new developments. The proposal requires Hamas to first release 10 surviving Israeli hostages and the remains of some of the hostages who were killed. In exchange, Israel will release more Palestinian prisoners and commit to a 60-day ceasefire. After these 60 days, the two sides will enter a lasting ceasefire, and the remaining hostages and remains will be handed over one after another. In addition, Hamas requires the United States to publicly commit that Israel will participate in negotiations aimed at ending the war to avoid repeating the failure of the ceasefire in January this year.
Hamas's isolation and signs of compromise
As the conflict continues, Hamas's situation is becoming increasingly difficult. Its Lebanese ally Hezbollah and its main funder Iran have been severely damaged by Israel's military strikes, and Hamas's military leadership in Gaza has been almost completely eliminated. In eight months, Hamas has replaced three leaders, which shows its internal turmoil. However, Hamas said in a statement on Wednesday that it would "actively participate in the efforts of mediators" and was open to "any serious ideas that may lead to a comprehensive agreement." This statement is seen as a signal that it is seeking compromise under pressure.
Israel's position and pressure
Although Israel has expressed its willingness to negotiate, it remains tough on key issues. People familiar with the matter revealed that Israel had previously made ending the conflict with Iran a priority in order to focus on the situation in Gaza. However, whether Israel is willing to make concessions on core issues such as a permanent ceasefire or the disarmament of Hamas remains unknown. In addition, the United States' recent participation in Israel's strikes against Iran's nuclear program has also added complexity to the Gaza negotiations. Although Iran's retaliatory strikes have been relatively restrained, any fluctuations in the regional situation may affect the progress of the negotiations.
IV. The role of international mediation and future prospects
Mediation by Egypt and Qatar
As traditional mediators of the Gaza negotiations, Egypt and Qatar continue to play a key role in this negotiation. It is reported that Arab mediators are communicating with Israel and Hamas by phone and plan to hold face-to-face talks in Egypt. These efforts have been strongly supported by the United States, and the Trump administration hopes to consolidate its influence in the Middle East through diplomatic means.
Opportunities and risks of negotiation prospects
Although the current negotiations have shown some positive signs, challenges still exist. Hamas's doubts about Israel's long-term commitment, Israel's insistence on Hamas' disarmament, and the uncertainty of the regional situation may become stumbling blocks to reaching an agreement. However, the success of the Iranian ceasefire has provided a rare window for negotiations, and the active intervention of the Trump administration has also put pressure on both sides. If all parties can seize this opportunity, the Gaza conflict may be expected to usher in a turnaround.
Summary: Dawn of peace or another false joy?
The United States has restarted the Gaza negotiations with the help of the Iranian ceasefire. Trump's optimistic statement and the active mediation of Special Envoy Witkov have brought new hope to both sides of the conflict. However, historical experience shows that the complexity of the Gaza issue is far beyond imagination, and the resolution of core differences requires both sides to show greater sincerity and flexibility. With the joint efforts of the international community, can Gaza usher in real peace? The progress of the negotiations in the next few weeks will be crucial.
On the whole, if the US makes progress in the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, it may put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term due to the decline in geopolitical risks and the recovery of risk appetite. However, the uncertainty of the negotiations, the potential recurrence of the situation in the Middle East and the global economic background will continue to provide some support for gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to the progress of the negotiations and the trend of the US dollar to determine the short-term fluctuation direction of gold prices. In the long run, the safe-haven and anti-inflation properties of gold will continue to attract capital inflows, limiting its downside.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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Senior Market Strategy Analyst | CFA® Charterholder | Builder of a Million Member Profit System. To join, please click 👉🚀🚀t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉：t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。