XBTFX

Gold: currently too high?

OANDA:XAUUSD   黃金現貨 / 美元
Markets continue to hold on Fed Chair Powell`s rhetoric over the potential three rate cuts during the course of this year. In expectation, markets are making re-positioning for the first rate cut. Gold for one more time lost the negative correlation with USD during the previous week, when it reached a new all time highest level at $2.232 on Friday`s trading session. March was also the best month for the price of gold during the last three years.

During the first half of the week, the price of gold was testing the $2.200 resistance line, which was broken on Friday, leading to new ATH. The RSI clearly entered into the overbought market side and is ending the week at this level. Moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from MA200, without any indication that the potential cross is in the store for gold.

The negative correlation with USD was broken on Friday, which might impact the price of gold to return a bit toward the $2.200 level at the start of the week. However, considering that there is still a demand for this metal, at this point on charts, there is no indication that the price might break the $2.2K to the downside. There is also lower probability that the price might revert again toward $2.230, with currently little probability that new ATH might be reached.

Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, ISM Services PMI for March, Fed Chair Powell speech, Non-farm Payrolls for March, Unemployment Rate for March

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